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Why Do The Polls Keep Getting It Wrong? Many Republicans Have Stopped Taking Surveys.
HuffPost ^ | Updated Apr 28, 2017 | Dr. Benjamin Knoll, Ph.D. , Contributor

Posted on 11/01/2018 6:42:52 PM PDT by 11th_VA

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To: 11th_VA
poll.. as a verb:

verb: poll; 3rd person present: polls; past tense: polled; past participle: polled; gerund or present participle: polling

2nd meaning:

2. cut the horns off (an animal, especially a young cow).

Now it makes sense...

21 posted on 11/01/2018 7:00:45 PM PDT by maddog55
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To: 11th_VA

Interesting post. And I agree that the poles are biased against Republican candidates. And there is no reason to not believe his Exit Polling Data.

But the anti-GOP bias cannot be caused by a reluctance of Republicans to answer pollsters. The reason: pollsters use models of the electorate. They have to have X Dems, Y GOP, Z Independents, ZZ Libertariians and ZZZ Other. Or something like that.

It’s the models that hold the bias. They overstate the Dem proportion of the voting public so the Garbage In, Garbage Out Rule applies.

I think this going to be a bad year for the Pollsters. OTOH I’m looking forward to reading what Nate Silver has to say Wednesday morning.


22 posted on 11/01/2018 7:06:37 PM PDT by InterceptPoint (Ted, you finally endorsed. A)
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To: 11th_VA

The last call I got for a poll I asked how much it paid.

The woman said it didn’t pay anything.

I asked if she was being paid.

She said yes.

I said I would work for the same amount.

She hung up.


23 posted on 11/01/2018 7:09:46 PM PDT by aMorePerfectUnion
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To: InterceptPoint
Nate Silver has to say Wednesday morning.

He's going to say the same thing he said in 2016 - we got the popular vote correct, but at the district and state level we didn't get the distribution correct - translation: In Red areas, they don't see the undertow...

24 posted on 11/01/2018 7:11:11 PM PDT by 11th_VA ("When passions are most inflamed, fairness is most in jeopardy." - Susan Collins)
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To: 11th_VA
As the polling industry has increasingly come to be perceived as part of the “elite establishment” by many populist conservatives, a growing proportion of the Republican electorate may simply be refusing to participate in public opinion polls...or maybe even lying and saying they voted for the 'rat instead of the 'pub to really screw the polls up......
25 posted on 11/01/2018 7:12:05 PM PDT by Intolerant in NJ
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To: 11th_VA
This is from a 2012 article.

I assume these downward trends have continued.

26 posted on 11/01/2018 7:13:18 PM PDT by TChad
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To: 11th_VA

It’s a difference of personality. Libtards enjoy enlightening us rubes with their retarded opinions, so they are eager to answer every poll and survey they can get to, usually more than once (as I said, it’s a personality thing). Conservatives, on the other hand, have better things to do - and it’s nobody’s business what we think anyway.

I don’t answer the phone unless I know the number, so I avoid phone polls. And I steer clear of people asking questions on the street. If I were to be exit polled I would lie - yep, voted for every rat on the ballot. None of their dang business.


27 posted on 11/01/2018 7:16:26 PM PDT by Some Fat Guy in L.A. (Still bitterly clinging to rational thought despite it's unfashionability)
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To: 11th_VA

Quinippiac called me last week. MY call block program alerted me as to whom it was calling. I didn’t answer because I don’t want to give them my opinion. I want to keep them clueless. And they are now blocked from calling again. Polls are for strippers and clueless DimocRATS.


28 posted on 11/01/2018 7:17:40 PM PDT by RocketMan1
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To: for-q-clinton

This is stupid because the mostly fake bad polling depresses the right and hurts turn out somewhat. This is unnecessary stressful and short sighted.


29 posted on 11/01/2018 7:18:39 PM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn)
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To: Drango

Goofing the polls is stupid because the sheeple think they are real and want to go with a winner. They have no brains and you are making it easier for them to vote Demoncat.


30 posted on 11/01/2018 7:20:24 PM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

The brainless middle “independents” are influenced by the polls and will go with the crowd. So I feel like I should answer the polls.


31 posted on 11/01/2018 7:23:05 PM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

I just literally laughed out loud reading that. Thanks. :-)


32 posted on 11/01/2018 7:23:56 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: 11th_VA

33 posted on 11/01/2018 7:27:53 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: central_va

Except of course that the hard line constitutionalists are also independent. But they aren’t swayed by polling anyway.


34 posted on 11/01/2018 7:30:26 PM PDT by MrEdd (Caveat Emptor)
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To: central_va

Except of course that the hard line constitutionalists are also independent. But they aren’t swayed by polling anyway.


35 posted on 11/01/2018 7:30:28 PM PDT by MrEdd (Caveat Emptor)
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To: Republican Wildcat
😁
36 posted on 11/01/2018 7:31:31 PM PDT by aMorePerfectUnion
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To: 11th_VA
Commercial Photography
37 posted on 11/01/2018 7:33:11 PM PDT by CaliforniaCraftBeer
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To: PeterPrinciple
or something similar....................

Mostly something similar.

38 posted on 11/01/2018 7:36:42 PM PDT by Mark17 (Genesis chapter 1 verse 1. In the beginning GOD....And the rest, as they say, is HIS-story)
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To: Alberta's Child

Early vote is R+. All the polls are D+. Which of them is accurate?

If the polls undercount Republicans, they’re as credible as the famous 1936 Literary Digest poll.

They’re not random polls and they will get the election result wrong.

The people in the polling industry have learned nothing from 2016. None of them foresaw the Trump win.

Voters have a way of confounding the conventional wisdom.


39 posted on 11/01/2018 7:37:09 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: MrEdd

The middle “independents” are mostly stupid politically. Very few have read the USC. The polls sway them. It’s a beauty contest.


40 posted on 11/01/2018 7:38:25 PM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn)
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