You obviously have no concept of local elections. This is not about a national aggregate. It is about 60 microcosms, not one being similar to another - and absolutely no similarity to a national election. This election is a “Hail Mary, onside kick” - if you want a football analogy.
Right, so unless you analyze and predict each local race, you can’t assume we lose half or whatever, you have no idea.
It really is all about turnout. Trump has done everything to motivate his base, and after all these have been republican districts.
Local elections BS
Vast majority of voters don’t even know their congress critters names
Back in 94 when the GOP took the Senate and House it was a vote against Clinton’s BS
NOTHING to do with local elections
Same way when the Dems took over when Bush screwed up the war in 2006
Referendums on the PRESIDENTs