“Rain favors Republicans, studies say”
Short Range Forecasts
My prediction, Wednesday AM Mr. Silver will still have his head where the sun don’t shine.
KMA Nate. You’re irrelevant.
They are ignorant. Some one convinced the younger ones that there is an electoral college involved in this midterm.
Low approval rating???
I feel better this year than the last. Trump has stolen many marches and won many battles against Party D these last two years. We have now only to support him and the party with our vote!
We will soon find out whether this republic has the will to survive, or will continue in a death spiral.
He gave Hillary Clinton a 92 percent chance of being elected president, so his chance of Republicans retaining the House is lower than Mrs. Clinton’s chance of being president.
They are complaining about the fact that when all R & D votes are tallied, for all congressional races, they could have a higher vote total and still not win the majority.
This is their new excuse for losing and delegitimizing the GOP.
They will add up all the votes for every House race, and if the utterly meaningless "raw vote" tally for Dems exceeds Reps, but they still get less than 23 seats, it will be deemed "unfair" and thus "illegitimate."
They are still making the same mistakes. Focusing on facts gained from past elections did not help them in 2016 and I pray to the Lord Jesus that they are just as wrong this time. That Americans will be given an opportunity to reverse many of the anti God culture that had threatened to swamp it. Time to complete the draining of it and for it to be filled with new rain from above.
So there is a 20% chance Democrats will re-take the Senate but only a 14% chance the Republicans will keep the House.
Yeah-— that is compelling analysis /s
The 538 project started out with what seemed like good intentions, but it has morphed into something that is not what it was originally sold as. Nate Silver does not have enough meaningful data to calculate meaningful statistical figures.
The polls that he is supposedly relying on don’t even exist in some cases or are months old. Also most Republicans do not participate in polls that they know are being commissioned by leftists.
What is it with “win the popular vote” Democrats are claiming?
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I suspect it’s an attempt to rationalize and justify the riots already planned and organized.
“Rain favors Republicans, studies say”
Short Range Forecasts
The polls got the popular vote about right but got the states wrong.
Similarly, the polls may well be right about the overall national vote, but it’s meaningless. Many Democrat districts are routinely 80-20,90-10. That skews the national total. But when you go district by district,it’s a different picture.
The generic ballot has closed to a small margin. It’s +3 Democrat to +1 Republican, depending on the poll. That is the range where the Republicans are likely to hold the House.
The media doesn’t even see #WalkAway or #Blexit.
All the trend lines are moving towards the Republicans.
In several states — most — Republicans he a lead in early voting, which Democrats ALWAYS win. ALWAYS.
Pundits are hedging, and the Democrats are not acting confident.
Huh???
Lack of traditional landlines are killing the polling business.
Along with the silent Trump voters who will not disclose their voter preferences.
Oh, Nate Silver. His predictions have been useless ever since Obama stopped feeding his those internal polls.
Race A: Republican wins 51% to Democrat 49% with 1,000 votes cast.
Race B: Republican wins 51% to Democrat 49% with 2,000 votes cast.
Race C: Democrat wins with 80% to Republican 20% with 100,000 votes cast.
Therefore snowflake logic deems that because of the popular vote, the Democrats should be awarded all three seats.
In what dimension are they seeing Trump with low approval numbers?