The fact is no matter how good your polling there's still an element of good luck.
If polls were accurate, they would all report the exact same numbers.
As I said, every election cycle, ONE pollster gets lucky.
Rasmussen was the closest pollster last time around, and has been in other elections as well. You do understand that Nate Silver is not a pollster. He is a “statistician”. He uses data from multiple sources to come to his conclusions. But it was a garbage in garbage out situation the last time around and probably is the same this time around as well.