Posted on 05/15/2019 12:27:29 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
President Donald Trump’s trade war with China could cost the average American family of four up to $2,300 a year, according to a report on the effect of tariffs on the U.S. economy and workers.
The study, by the economic consulting firm Trade Partnership Worldwide, assesses how tariffs will affect American consumers and the economy. According to the report, an average American family of four would pay $2,300 more in goods and services each year if Trump imposes a 25% tariff on all goods from China, as he has repeatedly threatened. If tariff levels remain where they are today, the average American family is expected to pay about $770 in higher costs each year the tariffs remain in place, says Laura Baughman, a co-author of the study and president at Trade Partnerships Worldwide.
The findings come as Trump and China have both escalated the trade dispute in recent days. As U.S. and Chinese negotiations met in Washington last week, Trump announced that he was raising tariffs from 10% to 25% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. China responded with a plan to increase tariffs on $60 billion in U.S. exports.
Then, on Monday, the Trump Administration outlined plans to impose additional tariffs on another $300 billion worth of Chinese imports, providing a list of products that include apparel, children’s toys, crafting products, sports equipment and shoes. That amounts to tariffs on virtually all Chinese imports.
The U.S. imported almost $540 billion in goods from China in 2018, while exporting $120 billion. Meanwhile, the U.S. imported $18 billion in services from China in 2018, while exporting almost $59 billion, though services are not directly affected by tariffs.
(Excerpt) Read more at time.com ...
And let’s not forget that President Donald Trump has lied over 10000 times.
These people are sick.
“Are you saying that there will NOT BE job losses, slower economic growth and a drop in exports due to China’s retaliatory tariffs?”
The main American interests who significantly sell in China are ABC (Apple, Boeing, Caterpillar), agricultural commodities, and Natural Gas. The final category are those who provide essential components (like semiconductor chips) for China’s own export products - putting tariffs on them would hurt Chinese exports equally.
Boeing and Natural Gas producers have customers waiting in line for years to come, so they will have little impact. Agricultural bailouts are already prepared, to cover any temporary loses, while commodity delivery orders are re-directed between suppliers and consumers, with no real change in supply or demand.
Apple and Caterpillar have a problem, but not something that would kill their overall business - just their big exposure in China. Most American businesses have long been effectively shut out of China’s domestic market.
There is also the upside of re-shoring, that should be calculated as well - added jobs, additional economic activity and supporting supply chain, facilities construction, and the resulting higher domestic tax revenues, which might offset other domestic taxes.
The tariff revenue itself will likely be spent domestically, to provide some degree of stimulus - and some proportion of that will be coming out of the hide of Chinese producers. The EU, and the UK’s Economist magazine, both estimate that around 80% of the tariff load will be borne by the Chinese themselves, through discounting and currency devaluation.
it “could” also cost each family zero $. I dislike so much speculative writing - just meant to stir up people and keep the divisiveness going.
So it will keep my family from buying $2300.00 in Chicom junk. Thats great!
Only if they buy a bunch of Chinese chit!
It will still be cheaper than Obamacare.
What will be the cost to American families when communist China dominates the US (and thus, the world) economically and militarily?
Trade Partnership Worldwide mailed a PR release from the Nazi Soros to Time that published it as a news story.
WOW! That was hard to figure out.
I support retaliatory tariffs on ALL of Americas enemies.
“BUT, not confronting China NOW will cost us this country and our LIBERTY!”
I agree with the idea of confronting the ChiComms in China, but China has a whole bunch of bigger problems with India, rather than the US.
By 2030, China will have lost the race for dominance in Asia, as the average age of the Chinese citizen will be 50-years of age or better. In India, the average age will be 30-years of age or less. Guess what? An army of soldiers aged 30-years or less beats the crap out of an army composed of soldiers more than 50-years-old.
Demographics is destiny, and the stupid ChiComm apes aborted their future.
It’s TIME magazine so what they really meant was $2.30 but moved the decimal for dramatic effect.
Wow! Gone up THREE TIMES since just yesterday. Guess their polls did not show enough shock with the $800 figure.
AKA, pay for the Chinese navy or else
For one thing, I don’t buy it. Second, even if some things become more expensive, if it does it while making American goods more attractive and brings back more jobs so be it.
There are plenty of cheap goods coming in from other countries that are NOT ripping off our companies, Vietnam, India, Mexico, WE NEED to break trade ties with China they can NOT be trusted and their human rights is atrocious!!! WE WILL all survive NOT buying China products, yesterday the head of some sneaker company was just hysterical over this he could have given a shit less about OUR COUNTRY and OUR WORKERS only cared about the cheap sneakers their company was getting from COMMUNIST China!!! What a POS!!!
Absolute bull shit.@0
But what will it cost China?
China represents less than 3% of our GDP! We can/will weather the storm! China can’t.
Question? Why is it that China can have tariffs on our merchandise for more than 20 years without a peep from the media about how much it is costing the America citizens? But now we are fighting back it is now our (Trump’s) fault and an intolerable burden for all Americans?
We must surrender now before Trump has a win.
“Worst case scenario — If the US places 25% tariffs on ALL Chinese imports and no substitution for those goods and services occurs, the additional cost would be $145 billion. “
No way it happens. Free trade academics, politicians, economists, journalists, and globalist corporate types are using static economic analysis. In the real fluid and dynamic world the following are happening as we speak. The invisible hand of Adam Smith is working:
1) Every buyer of Chinese merchandise is telling their suppliers to cut prices to eliminate the effect of the tariff or else suppliers will be switched.
2) Sourcing departments of importers are working overtime to develop new resources in India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Thailand, etc.
3) Chinese suppliers are looking for every possible cost reduction and efficiency gain to offset the margin hit they will be taking when they reduce prices. The Chinese factories are also screaming to the Chinese government for export incentives, loan relief, tax relief, and direct subsidies.
4) Chinese domestic competitors with small export businesses are sharpening their pencils and going after their Chinese rivals. Another reason Chinese factories will be cutting prices and slashing their margins.
5) Suppliers from Thailand, the Philippines, India, Cambodia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and other Asian companies are lined up at Walmart and other large importers offering to deal.
6) Importers are taking a harder look at Western Hemisphere supply chains taking advantage of low wages in Central America and existing free trade agreements. Long term Western Hemisphere supply chains have the potential to be faster, less volatile, and close to cost parity due to much lower transportation costs and lower inventory investment (you have 1 week of inventory on the water instead of 4-5 coming from Asia).
7) The Chinese government can’t afford the domestic unrest that will come from large numbers of factory workers losing jobs. China cannot afford to lose market share to neighboring countries. The Chinese government will have to subsidize exporters to the US so they can lower prices. The government will also devalue the Chinese currency as it did when the 10% tariffs were put into effect. Likely China will have to scale back its military and Silk Road investments which will be a good thing for the US.
8) Visionary US CEO’s are looking at advances in robotics and AI for the potential to highly automate production processes now in Asia and bring the production back to the US.
Any US supplier incapable of using this “crisis” to its advantage to lower prices is a fool and deserves to go out of business. Any academic who preaches the US consumer will pay 100% of the tariff should be fired.
In 1865 the US was devastated from 4 years of Civil War. European countries dominated global economics. From 1865 to 1900 the US rose from economic devastation to the largest industrial economy on the planet. During those 35 years the US had the highest growth rate, and the highest tariffs, in its history. Over the past 30 years China has enjoyed the fastest growing economy in the world, climbing from poverty to a great industrial power while maintaining a mercantilist trade policy, protecting its domestic industry. Economists who claim open market free trade is the path to economic prosperity are fools. Just look at the anemic US economic growth rate over the past 30 years when we dropped our tariffs and quotas allowing foreign companies to slaughter US manufacturing.
Great post-thanks
Being knowledgeable about history is a great way to not repeat past mistakes.
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