One thiing models can’t account for, is the influence of Big Social Media opinion manipulation.
see/listen to Scott Adams.
The only thing that matters is the final vote on election night.
I wouldn't put it past the left to start writing articles that Trump is going to win re-election in a landslide so naive and complacent Trump voters don't bother to vote.
Then there are the October surprises, real or fake, that can throw an election overnight (BuzzFeed and CNN tried it with the alleged 'pee-tape').
And lets not forget all the wealthy tech and finance guys who hate Trump and might be willing to crash the economy before the election and take a financial hit just to defeat Trump.
And there are plans in motion we can't even imagine right now.
TAKE NO WIN FOR GRANTED. Every election is a fight to the end.