Four reasons why Trump is cruising towards re-election

The Manchester Guardian ^ | June 20, 2019 | Cas Mudde

[xp38]

Oh the msm polls will insure that the President will be running his campaign with a double digit deficit until election night.

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

Is VP Pence another George Bush ?????

Not even close. But, he isn't Trump 2.0 either. He has served well as VP and over the next two years a determination will be made, hopefully by Trump, who can best run in 2024 on the GOP ticket. Lots of time.

The reality is that few sitting VP’s are elected POTUS. Early on, yes - Adams succeeded Washington. And, FTM, Jefferson succeeded Adams. But that was before the passage of the 12th Amendment. Subsequent to the passage of 12A, all you have is van Buren succeeding Andrew Jackson - and GHW Bush succeeding Ronald Reagan.

In the context of 12A, the sitting VP is the political heir of the sitting POTUS. If Mr. Trump is able to confound “the media” and leave office with high approval, VP Pence has a shot at the presidency. If not, not.

[Forgiven_Sinner]

You forgot about Teddy Roosevelt succeeding McKinley. Cooledge succeeding Harding. Truman succeeding Roosevelt, and Nixon succeeding Eisenhower (in 1968. He would have won in 1960 except for Chicago fraud).

VP is the best office from which to become President. Governor is the second best.

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

Teddy Roosevelt succeeding McKinley. Cooledge succeeding Harding. Truman succeeding Roosevelt, and Nixon succeeding Eisenhower

. . . none of whom were elected president while sitting as VP.

VP is the best office from which to become President. Governor is the second best.

VP is the only office from which to become president without being elected president. So in that sense, this is true. But VP is a better office from which to win the nomination of your party than it is to be elected POTUS in your own right. If your sitting POTUS isn’t more popular than most two term presidents are in their second term, you don’t win.

Anyone running to succeed a sitting POTUS of their own party has that issue. A sitting VP has it in spades.

I agree that governor is an excellent credential for a presidential candidate. Because, IMHO, governor is an executive position, like president (or mayor, which is inferior to governor). In fact the only senator or VP to defeat a governor in a presidential race was Harding, who defeated the governor of his own state (Ohio) in 1920. That Democrat governor had a terrible headwind trying to succeed Wilson, also a Democrat, who was unpopular at the end of his second term.

And no senator has ever beaten a sitting president. When you look at the Democrat candidate field, I think you don’t see any prominent governor in the mix. Hickenlooper, I think - but "Hickenlooper who?”

Lots of things have happened for the first time, of course . . .