Will Trump also win by 20 points? Or by less than 10 points like 2016?
If I had to guess, low teens. He support is rock-solid in Texas, probably 95% of Republicans. In 2016, there was the Cruz contingent who weren’t crazy about him, and there were other Republicans who simply didn’t trust him. I think the Cruz bunch is over it, while there isn’t certainly isn’t any doubt about Trump governing as a conservative now. So he picks up a 5 points from 2016, but loses 2 or 3 to demographics.