Turnout is everything.
I saw a detailed study once that said ALL elections are decided by GOP turnout.
It said that Democrat turnout is nearly a constant. So the winner depends on if more or less GOP voters turn up at the polls.
So Erie PA could be a bellwether because it has a high population of registers GOP, and if they all show up then the GOP will win.
My fear is the opposite. That the Democrats will flush a huge turnout of gibmedats by promising to forgive everyone’s medical and student debts.
Not to be snarky, but what about the Democratic Dead votes, ballot harvesting, and illegal voting?