Even New York Times sees that Chinese leadership is divided and wavering

American Thinker ^ | 09/08/2019 | Thomas Lifson

[SeekAndFind]

One of the standard criticisms of President Trump’s trade war with China is that China has the upper hand because it is not a democracy.

Meanwhile, President Trump faces voters in 14 months, so therefore it was a mistake to challenge the status quo that allows China to steal intellectual property and pay for its economic and military growth via unending half-trillion-dollars-a-year trade surpluses with the United States. Foolish Trump!

The problem with this view is that it greatly underestimates the vulnerability of Xi Jinping -- or any other Chinese Communist Party head. The Politburo and its Central Committee can and have deposed previous leaders who lost their confidence. And with serious economic pain and the ongoing rebellion against China’s attempt to step-by-step exert absolute authority over Hong Kong, there is serious discontent in leadership circles of the Chinese Communist Party that may be constraining Xi and could end up rewarding Trump.

Today, the New York Times finally acknowledges that China’s leadership is being divided and that Xi’s rule may not last forever if pressures continue to build. Of course, being loath to acknowledge any possibility that Trump might be effective in his pressure, the article is almost completely focused on the Hong Kong crisis, but many paragraphs deep into the piece, it does acknowledge that trade issues also are dividing the leadership.

If you can get past the paywall, it is worth a read in its entirety. But here are a few highlights within the fair use copyright restrictions. The article is titled, “Is Xi Mishandling Hong Kong Crisis? Hints of Unease in China’s Leadership” and is bylined by Steven Lee Myers, Chris Buckley and Keith Bradsher.

[Rennes Templar]

Has Trump said anything about Hong Kong?

[Tax-chick]

Does Mr. Lifson always accept the New York Times's interpretation of international events?

[trebb]

Haven’t seen anything from trump on Hong Kong, but they did poke another finger into China’s eye...will be interesting to see how the Dragon reacts...

[Zhang Fei]

[Does Mr. Lifson always accept the New York Times’s interpretation of international events? ]

---

The paper has the ability to quiz people who know something about history in general and about Chinese history specifically. What’s not understood about monarchs and other absolute rulers is that they *always* have internal challengers, some of whom might even ostensibly their strongest supporters, men they personally promoted. Not because of ideological differences, but because it’s good to be king. The idea that Xi is this unassailable ruler never made much sense, especially in the pressure cooker environment of Chinese court politics.

[bert]

——Has Trump said anything about Hong Kong?——

He doesn’t need to

Hong Kong speaks for itsself

Or...... perhaps Hong Kong is speaking for Trump : )

[PGR88]

More NY Times fake news. They print unknowable rumor and speculation as fact.

[Tax-chick]

I agree with your point about dictators' always facing internal challengers.

It is unrelated to my point about Mr. Lifson's invocation of the New York Times as an authority.

[tired&retired]

Another link

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/in-depth/is-xi-mishandling-hong-kong-crisis-hints-of-unease-in-chinas-leadership/ar-AAGZ7tK

[Biggirl]

In truth it is NOT China but the USA that has the upper hand because of President Trump’s success in handling this trade war process.

[Biggirl]

Got to remember that Xi is a strongman,just as President Trump is.

[Biggirl]

....Rather a talon from the eagle.

[FreedomNotSafety]

Yes he has.

[FreedomNotSafety]

Much to the dismay of the pro government regulated trade crowd I point out that Trump is conducting a cold war with China and trade is the weapon. Trump has quietly reopened trade to much of the rest of the world and may even be on the verge of obliterating anti-trade measures with our allies.

His anti-trade rhetoric is the red herring that the press and the public are focused on. It keeps China from losing face and perhaps being provoked into a military response. The press and public are missing the point that he is simply fighting China’s hedgemon dreams. He is fighting China in a way that China can appreciate. The rules change constantly, direct words are never used, angry posturing, absurd negotiating positions, oh wait... that’s just Trump being Trump.

Remember all of Reagan’s supposed “gaff’s”? Hmmmm...?

[Rockingham]

In order to understand Chinese politics, personalities and developments within the Communist party are closely monitored by US spy agencies and analyzed by government and academic researchers. Not only do we know what is going on inside China, but the article is the sort of semi-official leak that is intended to warn China that we know that your leadership is badly divided and can take advantage of it if we want to.

The message to China's leaders is that if you do not cut a trade deal with the US soon you may suffer severe adverse consequences of your own making. Chinese history is full of episodes in which divided leadership spurred civil unrest and civil war. China's leaders are arrogant thugs, but they are also mindful of Chinese history and deeply insecure.

[LS]

No, but Peter Zeihan, an energy guy and “futurist” fully agrees. China is screwed. Their population is falling, they are locked in by a string of islands that their navy cannot penetrate, and they must import a ton of energy.

[LS]

Not just Trump. We already were on a path to have the upper hand big time by near energy-independence and a demography that has us as a YOUNGER nation than China in a decade. China is in big trouble, and the Japanese will likely be the biggest beneficiaries as the US withdraws from being world policeman.

[Biggirl]

Thank the one child policy.

[Biggirl]

Thank-you for your postings and FRper mail!

[Biggirl]

Yes and spot on.