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More on that Ukrainian passenger jet that went down in Iran last night: "Planes don't just blow up in mid air"
Hotair ^ | 01/08/2020 | John Sexton

Posted on 01/08/2020 11:31:01 AM PST by SeekAndFind

There was a plane crash last night in Iran which killed 176 people. The crash happened just a couple hours after the Iranian attack on Iraqi bases where Americans are stationed. Iranian state TV attributed the crash of the Ukrainian airliner to mechanical problems, however, the NY Times is now reporting that aviation experts aren’t so sure. The alleged sequence of events, and a video of the crash raise questions about whether this might have been an attack of some kind:

Though the evidence remained sketchy, aviation experts said that what was known indicated that the plane could have been attacked. Investigators should have that possibility “at the top of their agenda,” said Peter Goelz, a former managing director of the National Transportation Safety Board in the United States…

Ukraine International Flight 752 left Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran at 6:12 a.m. on Wednesday and abruptly ceased the automatic transmission of flight data about two to three minutes later, though it remained in the air for a few minutes longer.

Experts say that is an extremely rare sequence of events, even in a catastrophic accident — and all the more unexpected in a relatively new plane, built in 2016, of a model with a very good safety record…

“Planes just don’t blow up in mid air,” said Richard Aboulafia, vice president for analysis at Teal Group, an aviation consulting firm. “It doesn’t work like that.”

A state-run news agency released this video which it claims shows the airliner going down and then exploding:

نخستین ویدئو از سقوط هواپیمای اوکراینی اطراف شهریار pic.twitter.com/M3bZiLLryQ

— خبرگزاری ایسنا (@isna_farsi) January 8, 2020

That appears to be a plane on fire but if so it doesn’t necessarily rule out foul play. The obvious question is why a new plane caught on fire just two minutes after takeoff. As for the crew, ABC reports they were very experienced and that the Ukrainian company that owned the plane has never had a crash:

The crew was highly experienced, according to the executives; the captain, Volodymyr Gaponenko, had 11,600 flying hours, mostly spent on 737 aircraft, Ihor Sosnovsky, the airline’s vice president of operations, told reporters. His two co-pilots also had several thousand hours flying the same planes, he said.

“Given the crew’s experience, error probability is minimal. We do not even consider such a chance,” Sosnovsky said. According to the airlines, this is the first fatal crash since its founding in 1992.

An Iranian official told a state news service that one of the plane’s engines had caught fire but passenger jets are designed to fly with one engine in an emergency. If this was an engine fire, the plane should have been able to attempt a landing. Also, the pilot never contacted ground control to say there was an emergency. The black boxes were recovered from the crash site and should provide some insight into what happened, but Iran is refusing to send them to Boeing for analysis since Boeing is an American company. It’s not clear if Iran will attempt to do the analysis itself or send the black boxes elsewhere.

As suspicious as all this sounds, the possibility of an intentional attack also doesn’t seem to make much sense. This was a Ukrainian airliner but it was full of Iranians flying out of Tehran. Of the 176 people reportedly killed, Iran said 147 were Iranian. Ukraine provided different figures which the NY Times suggests may be the result differently counting people with dual citizenship: “Ukraine’s minister of foreign affairs, said there were 82 Iranians and 63 Canadians.” As crazy as I think the Iranian regime is, shooting down a jet full of Iranians does not make much sense.

That still leaves several possibilities, including that this plane was brought down by mistake. The crash happened hours after the Iranian attack on Iraq, an attack which appears to have been calculated to send a message without killing any US citizens. Perhaps the plane was mistaken for a military aircraft and shot down by Iran’s own air defenses?

For now it’s all just speculation. What we can say is the official story doesn’t coming out of Iran doesn’t seem to explain all of the facts. Here’s a BBC report on the crash which notes that the plane was delayed before takeoff:

CLICK ABOVE LINK FOR THE VIDEO



TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: iran; missiles; planecrash; ukrainianjet
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1 posted on 01/08/2020 11:31:01 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Paging Jack Cashill...


2 posted on 01/08/2020 11:31:48 AM PST by rfp1234
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To: SeekAndFind

Spontaneous center fuel tank.


3 posted on 01/08/2020 11:34:44 AM PST by BenLurkin (The above is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire. Or both.)
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To: SeekAndFind

The Plane didn’t kill itself.


4 posted on 01/08/2020 11:35:16 AM PST by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: SeekAndFind

A plane isn’t considered a “cultural site” is it?


5 posted on 01/08/2020 11:35:30 AM PST by Leep (Everyday is Trump Day!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Adam Shif is on this. We will soon find out it is linked to the President.


6 posted on 01/08/2020 11:35:43 AM PST by lurk
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To: SeekAndFind
It appears the remains of the plane looks like it was hit by the fragments from an Iranian Ra'd air defense system missile. I think an Iranian IRGC SAM operator may have mistakenly launched a missile and it hit the Ukrainian jet.
7 posted on 01/08/2020 11:36:11 AM PST by RayChuang88 (FairTax: America's Economic Cure)
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To: SeekAndFind

Black Box is not being relinquished.
Nuf said


8 posted on 01/08/2020 11:38:00 AM PST by Bell Bouy II
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To: SeekAndFind
"Planes don't just blow up in mid air"


9 posted on 01/08/2020 11:38:05 AM PST by Arones (When Leftists are in a minority, then they look for other ways to win.)
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To: RayChuang88

Ditto.


10 posted on 01/08/2020 11:38:49 AM PST by RushIsMyTeddyBear
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To: RayChuang88

RE: . I think an Iranian IRGC SAM operator may have mistakenly launched a missile and it hit the Ukrainian jet.

Where’s the Black Box?


11 posted on 01/08/2020 11:39:00 AM PST by SeekAndFind (look at Michigan, it will)
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To: SeekAndFind

Sure they do.
Especially center fuel tanks.

Just ask the Clintons.............


12 posted on 01/08/2020 11:40:19 AM PST by Red Badger (Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain.......... ..)
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To: SeekAndFind

Was the pilot Epstein’s roommate?


13 posted on 01/08/2020 11:40:31 AM PST by Lurkina.n.Learnin (If you want a definition of "bullying" just watch the Democrats in the Senate)
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To: SeekAndFind

We can see the Anti-Aircraft missile shrapnel damage ourselves.

https://mobile.twitter.com/almostjingo/status/1214814926025347073?s=21

The Enemedia need an Enema!


14 posted on 01/08/2020 11:40:31 AM PST by EasySt (Say not this is the truth, but so it seems to me to be, as I see this thing I think I see #KAG)
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To: SeekAndFind

Iran will want to blame POTUS DJ Trump for this. Probably did it themselves. Democrats and Fake media waiting on Iran to get their instructions on how to present this to the Snowflakes around the world.


15 posted on 01/08/2020 11:41:53 AM PST by dirtymac (Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their country.(DT4POTUS))
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To: SeekAndFind

Iran will want to blame POTUS DJ Trump for this. Probably did it themselves. Democrats and Fake media waiting on Iran to get their instructions on how to present this to the Snowflakes around the world.


16 posted on 01/08/2020 11:42:41 AM PST by dirtymac (Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their country.(DT4POTUS))
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To: RushIsMyTeddyBear; RayChuang88; SeekAndFind

Somebody here last night said the streak shown on the twitter cell phone video was the SAM in flight and that the air explosion is when it reached the airliner.

I think he may be right.


17 posted on 01/08/2020 11:42:42 AM PST by BenLurkin (The above is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire. Or both.)
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To: nobody in particular
..Planes don't just blow up in mid air"

TWA800 did...cause was determined to be sparks in an emplty fuel tank...despite multiple witnesses seeing 'a streak of light coming from the ground to the plane'....1996..

18 posted on 01/08/2020 11:42:48 AM PST by SGCOS
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To: BenLurkin

Yikes.


19 posted on 01/08/2020 11:44:38 AM PST by RushIsMyTeddyBear
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To: Arones
"Planes don't just blow up in mid air"

"Except when I'm President.


20 posted on 01/08/2020 11:46:56 AM PST by Bratch (IF YOU HAVE SELFISH IGNORANT CITIZENS, YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE SELFISH IGNORANT LEADERS-George Carlin)
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