Posted on 02/08/2020 3:06:57 PM PST by Vermont Lt
Of course I can’t answer that question with more than a guess. I’ve read so much about this that my head spins. The hospital I work in -and others besides mine- are beginning to take this seriously and plan.
I think part of the problem is how chaotic it is in Chinese hospitals right now, what criteria they use to determine if patient has corona, how many test kits are available, and how much “saving face” is influencing counts.
I try to keep an open mind. Let’s say in a town there are 500 people showing symptoms and only 150 kits available for testing. Let’s assume 200 symptomatic people are flu, bad colds etc. But we can’t know that until they’ve been tested. And who do we test? Likely the “sickest” ones. But dozens of others will go home - some of them giving it to others.
A problem too, is lots of people may have mild or negligible symptoms and not bother with test. But- maybe they have an uncle who lives with them who smokes...the “well” patient gives it to smoker uncle, etc.
There are definitely some extreme numbers floating around, some are agenda-driven speculation and some are quite rational. All that I’ve read by scientists OTHER than WHO conclude the numbers coming from China are not an accurate picture.
But, obviously I don’t know what the true numbers are. It’s a nightmare for the Chinese people, doctors and nurses. The various governing bodies I’m less sympathetic towards.
total reported infected 37,155
deaths 806
(Plus the 7 janetjanet just posted)
daily case rate >3,000
#Japan 80 cases
#Singapore 40 cases
#Thailand 32
#HongKong 26
#SouthKorea 24
#US 12
There are currently 37,552 confirmed cases worldwide, including 813 fatalities.
Yeah..overwhelming.
It should be noted that this afternoon 15:33 PST, the 2019 nCoV Coronavirus death tally surpassed that of SARS.
SARS took the lives of 774 humans.
2019 nCoV has now resulted in the deaths of 806 as I type.
SARS was documented to have infected 8096 people in 2003.
So far 2019 nCoV has infected 37,110.
While we can make a valid point of full reporting for 2019 nCoV, I would imagine we could have made that same observation about SARS. I do not know that to be true, but it seems like a reasoned observation since we’re talking about China again, mostly.
https://www.cdc.gov/dotw/sars/index.html
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
If I were a healthcare professional right now, especially those in charge of planning for this firestorm, I’d be more than a little ticked that the CDC didn’t bother to tell me that I needed a whole other level of PPE protection.
The surgical masks are those loose fitting things. Doesn’t do much to keep from breathing stuff in, but is good if the wearer is sick and keeps their coughs from spreading.
The N95 masks are the sturdier almost cardboard type that fit snug around the face so no air can come in the sides. They can get moist on the inside, and warm. I like the ones with the exhalation valves to keep them cooler.
Years ago I had wanted to get some actual plastic respirator masks. They fit better and are more comfortable. I had about 40 masks in the house that are a few years old. When I went to the local store and Amazon I was only able to get 20 more and then everything was gone.
So I broke down and bought a bunch of respirators and filters. The filters are low on stock though now too.
I was in Costco yesterday and wanted to get more coffee filters. I couldn’t find them. So I asked a guy. “Yeah - we don’t have any, we’re all out.”
We have a large population of Asians in our area. I wonder if they bought up the coffee filters to send them to their relatives back home. Hey - a filter is a filter, right? On the other hand, something may be better than nothing.
China only
total in serious or worse, % of the overall total, deaths
1-24 237 18.4% 16 deaths
1-25 324 16.4% 15 deaths
1-26 461 16.8% 24 deaths
1-27 976 21.6% 26 deaths
1-28 1219 20.8% 26 deaths
1-29 1370 17.7% 38 deaths
1-30 1527 15.7% 43 deaths
1-31 1795 15.2% 46 deaths
2-1 2110 14.6% 45 deaths
2-2 2296 13.3% 53 deaths
2-3 2788 13.6% 64 deaths
2-4 3219 13.3% 65 deaths
2-5 3859 13.8% 73 deaths
2-6 4821 15.5% 73 deaths
2-7 6101 17.7% 86 deaths
2-8 6188 16.6% 88 deaths
It is important to note that he had just had some kind of brain surgery or implant or something to try to deal with his alcoholism.
He could have died for all kinds of reasons...
I bought N100s years ago but my husband can’t handle those, so I picked up some N95s
My guess is that it takes about 3 weeks to kill you. Those 1000 people are probably in week 2.
5 deaths yesterday outside of hubei and 7 today
before the highest daily total was 2 i think
so the death lag may be catching up
>>I am stunned that there are provinces with more than 1,000 cases with no deaths? That doesn’t seem “believable.”<<
I noticed that too. Yet they have over a hundred recoveries. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the authorities in those provinces are following a party line that goes something like “All is well.”
Also I think we’ll soon find that the other provinces are underreporting new cases. The reason I say that is that Hubai province is still seeing exponential growth, but the other provinces are seeing new cases at a decelerating rate. I can’t say that with certainty, however. But the death reports seem awfully low in virtually all the provinces other than Hubai.
New Jersey ship
Crew Member Dies for Unrelated Reasons on Virus-Delayed Cruise Ship: Sources
Authorities do not believe the man’s death was related to the coronavirus, but are treating it with an “abundance of caution” as they await autopsy results
Not sure what this means, but putting it out there...
Data from http://windy.com shows a massive release of sulfur dioxide gas from the outskirts of Wuhan, commonly associated with the burning of organic matters. Levels are elevated, even compared with the rest of China.
https://twitter.com/inteldotwav/status/1226267582740811777
more on new jersey ship . death
The crew member, a Filipino national, was found in an engine room last weekend, two sources said. His body was kept in a refrigerated compartment until the ship docked in New Jersey, according to the sources.
I saw that earlier...another article said he died last weekend. I wonder if he was on the ship the entire time?
People’s Daily, China
@PDChina
About 50 patients and 30 medical staff in Wuhan Mental Health Center were diagnosed with the novel #coronavirus pneumonia on Feb 8, reported China News Weekly.
https://twitter.com/PDChina/status/1226313591222964225
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