Good to hear from you NB on this amazing, emerging Black Swan event.
A couple of things:
No one knows or can know what the “true numbers” are in China. If an event of this magnitude were happening here we wouldn’t know either.
The illness itself is coming into focus, the deterioration with severe lymphocyte depletion in the third week is very interesting, and makes me wonder if there is not something to the HIV gp120 insertion story, which I took to be science fiction. Several reports from Thailand and from the Washington State case suggest that antivirals are very effective, ramping up production by evil Big Pharma will become an issue and then a crisis.
What happens to the 4000 passengers and crew on the Diamond Princess anchored at Yokohama is very important to our understanding. Japan has (so far) taken off sick, virus + patients and admitted them to isolation hospitals - but there are 64 new cases today (it is said), and they cannot handle 4000 or anything like that safely, should it eventually prove necessary. Watch if world governments start demanding for their nationals to be released from quarantine (this would be predicted by previous pandemic wargaming).
I would begin to prepare your personal situation, and only then your finances, for the End of China (not the nation, but the State, and the “economy”). It makes me laugh, the people who think the end of the China phenomenon as regards the “global economy” is the worst thing that could happen - it isn’t, not by a damn sight - if China is the only place you can find food for your dog, there’s something seriously wrong with you.
Lastly, the GOP and the “demonrats” - much too soon to tell. Trump has not done enough, but coloring within the lines he has done more and done it faster than any other conceivable alternative leader.
He’s assembled an all star team, he’s taking their advice. The globalization crowd is “resisting”, sabotaging, pushing back hard in their tens of thousands of government and NGO sinecures - but arrivals from China are way down. There are holes in the defensive wall - nonstops still fly from Hong Kong to Boston, for example, a non-screening airport -but arrivals are down and so far are staying that way.
If this gets as bad as I expect, no open borders or open borders tolerant politician will survive.
Canada is a big concern - their mini-Macron is still in a public position of “come one, come all because muh values”, it’s unclear what, if anything the Canadian Deep State is doing abut that, and him.
The numbers from Germany go up every day. Are they saying they are all related (clustered) with the Singapore conference attendee, or is there more to it?
Hope you stay well.
I think they’ve decided that Singapore has ‘community transmission’ of this now and probably the UK as well.
Jim Noble wrote:
“...Lastly, the GOP and the “demonrats” - much too soon to tell. Trump has not done enough, but coloring within the lines he has done more and done it faster than any other conceivable alternative leader.
He’s assembled an all star team, he’s taking their advice. The globalization crowd is “resisting”, sabotaging, pushing back hard in their tens of thousands of government and NGO sinecures - but arrivals from China are way down. There are holes in the defensive wall - nonstops still fly from Hong Kong to Boston, for example, a non-screening airport -but arrivals are down and so far are staying that way.
If this gets as bad as I expect, no open borders or open borders tolerant politician will survive. ...”
Good points.
With ME?
I thought there was something wrong with my dog. Every time I feed him, an hour later he's hungry again...
First confirmed case 1/3/20
First reported recovery 1/21/20
First reported death 1/24/20
If you use JHU CSSE's numbers and look at how many confirmed cases died vs how many recovered three days later, you get some very horrific percentages. Granted, these were the sickest of the sick, but still!
As to the people on the Diamond Princess? We'll know their fates in a month or so. It will be a lot better than the fate of people welded into their apartment building petri dishes with no supplies or medical care.
“...no open borders or open borders tolerant politician will survive.”
Key point here! Completely shut down the southern border now.