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Strange math you have there...not all of the “currently sick” will die, so I think your 15% “mortality rate” # is way off. I prefer deceased / # of cases so you can compare it to past U.S. flu seasons....for example...the 2017-2018 U.S. flu season had roughly 44.8 million sick with flu with 61,099 deaths for a “back of the napkin” “mortality rate” of 0.14%. So for Western countries (I am taking out China & Iran #’s due to possibly “way off” numbers), we have 2805 cases of COVID-19 with 29 fatalities for a “mortality rate” of about 1.03%. (7.4 x higher than the regular flu). This is way early in the pandemic so these %’s are subject to a large change. For Australia they have had 22 cases with 18 recovered and 4 still sick for a mortality rate of zero so far. (Small sample size). Without accurate “# of people who got it” and “# of deaths” numbers, any “mortality rate” calculations are kinda bogus...how many people in China (3.5 billion of them) got coronavirus and stayed home (not counted) how many of those died? How many recovered? Too much margin for error.

I was reporting out the Mortality rate the way you have worked it up,
but I think that’s a little too rosy.

My mortality rate for the global number was over 60% at one point, as more
and more people became infected, but very few people had the illness long
enough to recover.

At that point a 2.2% mortality rate was showing using your method, and I
think that’s going to wind up too low.

In the end, we will take the people who died, and divide that number by
the people who died plus the people who recovered.

That will be the final accurate percentage, when the last case is resolved.

Not trying to give you a hard time. Others may prefer your way of doing it.