(From the article) :
"What would this mean for the closely followed China manufacturing PMI? As Nomura added, "even adjusting for seasonality and expected progress in business resumption in the coming week, we estimate the official manufacturing PMI could drop to a range of 30-40 in Feb.".
"In retrospect, it turns out that Nomura's dire forecast was optimistic, because moments ago China's National Statistics Bureau reported the latest, February PMIs and they were absolutely catastrophic .."
How long will it be to full recovery ?
That issue remains unknown at present !
The Chinese government realizes the extent to which they supply much of the worlds medication, electronics, and fabricated parts (including automotive), they have ordered much of their population to return to the workplace.
As dependency on the Chinese labor market has allowed the Chinese to garner much of the world's manufacturing production, they wish to protect their control of the market.
If the Chinese government had been forthright and honest about the virus in the first place, we might not be so mindful of our industries dependence on Chinese products.
However, forthright and honest figures on industry, trade equity, monetary exchange, and diseases is relatively unknown.
Change from this dependence requires industrial relocation, buildings modifications and expansion, a ready labor supply, job training & re-training.
All this takes time and money both by government, industry and consumers.
Expect delays and interruptions in the supply chain from this adjustment, which will occur in the meantime; stability will occur with minor interruptions based on the financial value to the Chinese government economy.
Hat tip : blam and nullie !
This is retribution for Chinese treachery!
A dr said everyone should have a thermometer on hand for self checking. A fever is considered 100.4 btw.