Also, Trump is probably 100% correct that this fades away in April. We don't know for sure, but it's very likely. It will stay endemic where it has spread, but it will be easier to track outside of flu season.
The disease will definitely be easier to track once the flu season is over. However, I believe that you are incorrect in assuming that it is less infectious than the flu. I saw a report yesterday, yes on the Internet, that indicated that the R(0) of this disease was between 4.5 and 7.0. If that is even code t the truth, that would make it several times as communicable as the flu, with exactly 0 people in the entire population vaccinated against it. Given that the flu has been infecting about 40 million people her year even with many tens of millions been vaccinated against it I would seem to suggest that’s something north of 100 million people could ultimately be infected by this disease. No, not this month or next, it will take a while for that to happen. But the world went from zero people infected with Spanish flu to roughly 500,000,000 people infected with it in about 18 months, so we need to be aware of that possibility and take appropriate precautions on both a personal and societal level.
“Also, Trump is probably 100% correct that this fades away in April.”
I sure as hell hope so, there is a lot riding on that. If the weather warms on this continues to rise look out we are getting a economic crash, a big one. Bloomberg has already started his media blitz that he has the plan “to save the country and the economy” with a prime time 3 minute spot on two of the three networks. I think he purposely left one out because he is smart enough to know that it would be bad optics to go on all three and look like he was throwing his money around.
Sorry, but currently that is not true. We have had 10,000 deaths in the U.S. alone in the 2019-2020 flu season. Now that may change. The problem is there are a lot of unknowns with the coronavirus. Such as: will it run its course when warmer weather takes over? how fast will it spread? what will the mortality rate be without a vaccine to aid in combating it?
About a third of common codes are coronaviruses. The one death experienced in this country was an individual who had underlying medical issues to begin with.
Because there are so many unknowns, it is a little too early to descend into panic mode. It could be a raging pandemic, or it could turn out to be another common code virus.
Everybody just needs to take a deep breath,, with a mask if you so desire 8>), and relax until we find out more about this virus.
So far China is the hardest hit. By the time they identified it vast swaths of their society had been exposed, so it makes sense that the vast majority of cases exist in China. There has been spreading to other countries, but the numbers are far from alarming at this point. Nor is the death rate, or at least the quoted death rate by the Chinese. But there have been reports that the death rate is vastly understated. Unfortunately there is no way to confirm these claims. That is another factor driving hysteria. This is why honest numbers are important, and trust is very important. At some point in time China will either not be able to hide the reality, or the reality will prove to be that their numbers were not suppressed. Right now all we can do is watch other open nations to see what the impacts might be. They are our best method of gauging the virus and its impact.
“It’s about 10x higher mortality than the flu”
that’s simply ignorant bullshit:
“Early estimates of the coronavirus death rate from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the outbreak, have been around 2 percent. But a new report on 1,099 cases from many parts of China, published on Friday in The New England Journal of Medicine, finds a lower rate: 1.4 percent.
The coronavirus death rate may be even lower, if — as most experts suspect — there are many mild or symptom-free cases that have not been detected.
The true death rate could turn out to be similar to that of a severe seasonal flu, below 1 percent, according to an editorial published in the journal by Dr. Anthony S. Fauci and Dr. H. Clifford Lane, of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Robert R. Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/health/coronavirus-flu.html
Good point, not seen made yet.