Posted on 03/03/2020 3:07:04 PM PST by kristinn
“3000 deaths in a world with 7 billion people is barely a rounding error. 3000 people is a small auditorium.
I’m sorry, people that died or lost someone they loved. As a percentage of the total population of the world 3000 can barely be expressed.
Over 2 million people die every day of all causes. Heck probably 3 million people could die in a single day and we wouldn’t even know it.
Take 3000 people over a span of 2 months that is about 50 a day of corona virus. I am not going to get scared of odds like that. Shame on the people that are fomenting fear over it.”
23 posted on 3/3/2020, 1:52:10 PM by webheart (L)
http://freerepublic.com/focus/news/3821429/posts?page=23#23
The age old Cui Bono question, applies to what appears daily on FR and the many concerned and panicked posters.This is posted by Grampa Dave.
CNBC, Lib News/Lib Fi News
Always skewed
IIRC, the WHO have been using the crap denominator of all cases, not concluded cases. If you have a link demonstrating their denominator is concluded cases, I’ll listen to that.
Otherwise, the linked (above) John Hopkins data is 6%, and uses the correct denominator.
Key in the sentence is “of reported cases”. A large number of cases are not being officially diagnosed with tests, Only those receiving hospital care, as I understand. They’ve also said multiple times that about 8o%. are minor cases that don’t require advanced treatments and therefore don’t get officially tested. The full denominator isn’t really known.
Actually, the under-reporting is probably people walking around with it who have no or extremely mild symptoms.
I'd guess the mortality rate is around one or lower.
I think I’ll reserve judgement on all the numbers and speculation for the time being.
I’ll wait and see what happens, with the knowledge that a good portion of what I read and hear is crap.
the death rate is far lower than the author says. Where does such bad information come from?
LOL. Good to see you, kristinn...but WHO let the germs out? No investigation, no accountability for the WMDs? Where’s Jorge when we need him? No protests at L4 labs?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qkuu0Lwb5EM
(sorry, my snarkiness couldn’t resist. A lot of times this stuff is too horrific to contemplate)
In the process, they're undermining what little remaining faith we have in government institutions.
“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a press briefing at the agency’s headquarters in Geneva.
Let's focus on his statistic: "3.4% of reported have died".
Suppose 1,000 people have contracted the virus, and 34 have died. That is a 3.4% death rate just like he's saying.
However, he never said the other 966 cases were out of the woods yet. Many of those may have recently caught it, and remain in intensive care, preparing to die. Indeed, that lousy logic of including in the denominator people who may yet die has been the standard awfully abused statistic of this whole pandemonium.
Johns Hopkins correctly has about 3,000 dead and about 48,000 fully recovered, for a 3K / 51K = 6% death rate. The other 50,000 or so who have contracted the virus are still sick now, and are not out of the woods. If the 6% death rate holds for them, there will be another 3K dead as the thing runs its course among currently identified patients.
Does that make sense?
Neither would I but I will say that countries other than ours don’t have the medical personnel and hospitals needed to deal with this. Our system is far superb to many of these other countries.
If I’m wrong, tell me!
The WHO also said closing borders and limiting movement makes things worse.
WHAT says mortality rate is lower than that.
I DON'T KNOW says it doesn't matter.
Third base.
“The full denominator isn’t really known.”
Agree. The full NUMERATOR isn’t known either, since they haven’t un-welded the doors in Wuhan to bring out their dead!
Wait, WHO’s on first?
This totally makes sense.
Add to this the report from Guandong (sp?) China that 14% of the people who were said to have recovered from the disease have come down with it a second time. I don’t know what the mortality rate is for the poor souls who get a second installment of this thing but I imagine it’s north of 50%.
Exactly.
“I think that because there are so many people who get the disease and then either have no symptoms or have very mild symptoms and thereby never see a doctor that the actual death rate might be much lower.”
There’s also likely plenty of unreported severe cases and deaths too, like in China, where many of those severe cases that result in death never get counted do to the lack of testing kits. So the 3.4% you’re currently seeing based on a sampling of nearly 100,000 reported global cases is likely pretty accurate. And that percentage is at a time when global healthcare systems are not yet too overwhelmed with the virus.
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