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To: allendale

You can’t assume most, or even many, of those that left Wuhan in the early stages were infected. Perhaps they caught most of the people who were infected in the quarantines. Clearly they didn’t get everybody, but perhaps they put a crimp in it.

Based on incubation periods and the secrecy of the state governments about where it came from, I think it is far more likely that the major spreading was done by illegals coming across the border from Mexico or Canada.

And the racial stuff is essentially conspiracy theory material. Could it be true? Maybe. Is there any solid evidence to substantiate it? No, or not yet, at least. The original claims to that end were based on old, incomplete data that was at best reverse engineered to produce a predetermined result. Not properly vetted.

Our ICUs are not full, but we are weeks behind S. Korea (due to the actions of President Trump) instead of racing them for the highest case count outside of China. Trump’s early and subsequent calls were correct and probably the most he could do at the time. It may be that Italy’s patient 0 was a Pakistani engaging in virus jihad, but it isn’t just Chinese/Asians dropping like flies in Italy, Washington, Korea, etc.

Africa, Africa. There are only 2 places in Africa where they can even do real CV tests. Egypt and South Africa. Both have cases. In the rest of Africa the health care systems are so poor they probably don’t even know what’s going on. Add to that that in much of Africa life expectancies are pretty low - well under the 80/20 threshold for fatalities (80% of fatalities in people 65+) observed in western nations. Once testing gets going in Africa we’ll see what the data shows.

All in all, I strongly suspect that pollution, more than any other factor, determines how sick you will get (but what about India - I dunno). The pollution band stretches from Morocco to China. Korea, Japan and Italy are at the edges, Iran is smack in the middle of it. The West Coast gets its pollution from China and India but is clean compared to them. Then, if you are silly enough to believe the Chinese numbers, since their industry stopped and their skies cleared, CV cases have dropped to nearly zero outside of Wuhan. I don’t happen to believe them, myself.

Oh, there is another guy on here that says that Asians are *less* susceptible due to their history of flu epidemics. He cites stats from the Spanish Flu which allege that the Spanish Flu barely hit China. His contention is that we are gonna get hit harder than the Chinese. I don’t buy that, either.


13 posted on 03/07/2020 10:13:57 PM PST by calenel (Don't panic. Prepare and be vigilant.)
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To: calenel
Trump’s early and subsequent calls were correct and probably the most he could do at the time.

Politics is the art of the possible.

29 posted on 03/08/2020 5:53:44 AM PDT by null and void (By the pricking of my lungs, Something wicked this way comes ...)
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