Posted on 03/15/2020 10:06:19 AM PDT by nwrep
Latest Coronavirus stats for the USA:
Total Cases: 3083 (Increase of 700 since yesterday)
Total Deaths: 60 (Increase of 6 since yesterday)
When will we know the curve flattening is working?
We are still in the steep exponential (expoDential if you are Bi-Den) part of the curve.
We are expected to double every 2-3 days, which means we expect around 600,000 cases by the end of March following this trajectory.
We will only find out if we are successfully flattening the curve once the rate of testing catches up with the rate of infection. Once we are past that (Testing rate > Infection rate), the testing will show incremental infections, which will allow us to know if we are indeed flattening the curve.
When the economy totally collapses and they can declare capitalism dead.
When the Monica Media moves on to the next get-Trump hypefest.
To know when it’s flattening, we must first determine what the curve really is. We aren’t even close to that. Clusters keep popping up. 40 new cases in Louisiana in the past day, for example.
It is over when the economy gets so bad the panic of that far exceeds this overhyped cold. I say sometime around May, when millions are out of work and the calculus of how screwed they are starts sinking in.
But it's hard to know how many cases there are already are. Whatever shows in the curve is what was true 10 days ago, and it's only been a couple days that enough people started taking this seriously that curbing social behavior will change the future.
Interesting couple weeks ahead.
I happen to play soccer very early on Sunday mornings, so was driving by the Walmart which opens at 6am and stopped in to return a wrong sized lid on a bin. Arrived about 6:15. Three double rows of completely packed parking rows - long rows, and only about 4% of any paper goods left in the isle.
Now that it has been decided to close everything down.
Which official would take the risk of sounding the “all clear” siren?
What data will be used to decide when it is “OK” to open everything back up?
The curve will only flatten when the entire country is infected and has immunity. This closing everything down for two weeks thing just forestalls the inevitable.
My concern is that the US will do “everything right” and the virus will stop spreading here at home. Great! but if the virus remains active anywhere in the world, at some point, it will re-visit the US and we cannot “shut down” forever. I’m hoping warmer weather and a possible vaccine can really change this. But I wouldn’t want this to result in a mere “pause” only to see the fear of exponential growth suddenly return 4 months from now because people are out and about as normal.
When it’s out of the headlines.
“We will only find out if we are successfully flattening the curve once the rate of testing catches up with the rate of infection.”
—
Good luck with that.
I’m not a medical person. But Coronavirus will probably be seasonal like flu is and will probably disappear in northern hemisphere when weather warms up.
Note that precautions now being taken to stop Coronavirus are also helping to stop flu imo.
Corrections, insights welcome.
Once we are all dead it will die out
Bingo.
I debunked this on Powerline. Testing is not the gold standard. First of all in common with all other diagnostic tests there are False Positives/False Negative/True Positives & True Negatives.
Also in common with every other diagnostic tests when you open up the population being tested and include people that are not screened suitably, (suitable screening population is defined as limited to a testing population that has a high probability of having the disease) the false positives & false negative rate increases.
The COVID-19 test has a record of imprecision. Patients are required to have 3 or more negative tests at intervals before being released from isolation in hospital.
In the UK several patients have gone public with their experiences including one man who had 2 negative tests followed by a positive test. He will be several more weeks in isolation before they will test him again. He is defined as a slow shedder.
The gold standard will not be testing. It will be the drop of hospital admissions and later the drop in additional deaths. Testing is only a tool that will allow sifting to identify people who should self isolate. It will not identify all sick persons or carriers and will give a broad idea of prevalence in a geographic area of persons who are ill, have been ill or who are carriers. That information is interesting but the actual number of sick individuals is more germane.
As soon as we all turn off the MSM ~ long as they get viewers, they’ll keep up the hype
Hear, hear!
A bad time of year too. Polen is filling the air here in the SE as it does yearly. Means everyone I know is stuffed up and blowing yellow/green. Cars are all a bright yellow/green, so there will be lots of panic and false reports. I just hope they get test available soon.
That will be a sure giveaway. The media will move on.
When you turn blue, cant breath, coughing up bloody cottage cheese and you get an ICU room with a ventilator. Thats when you know the curve has been flattened.
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