[nathanbedford]

As of March 22, 2020, although there have been 205,621 "currently infected" cases there are 109,471 "cases with outcome" according to Worldometer.

Of those cases with outcomes 95,890, or 88%, have been "" recovered/discharged.

But 13,581, or 12%, died.

When we say that the death rate is 1.51% as of three days ago, that is done by guessing about the future. When we examine the past the death rate is 12%,

It is very difficult to come to final conclusions concerning lethality because of unknowns. We do not know how many people will catch the virus, we simply know what they report but many experts aver that many more with light or minimal symptoms go unreported.

Therefore it is impossible to make a judgment about the percentage of people within the population who die from the virus because we simply do not know what percentage get sick or what percentage will ultimately be treated.

All we know is that of those treated or recorded about 10 to 12% die by the end of the treatment.

[FlipWilson]

I suppose it is all in how you look at it:

1) we don’t know even a valid estimate of the patient population. The irony is (or was) that the media is driving testing testing testing. But as more people get tested, many with only mild symptoms, the population goes up and the death rate plummets. The media figured this out which is why they have pivoted to a “forget testing it’s impossible” meme.

2) 12% of everyone who gets the disease which is .003% of the World Population meaning .0002% are dying.

3) putting aside the stats, the media is really my issue here. We can all agree on this, very little was amd remains known about this virus. Yet the media used, ala global warming, whatever models they could to drive fear. Some models produced by the very people who had is all dead ten years ago from the rise of the oceans.

[wastoute]

The way one does this is to look at “doubling rate” not % of total. We are currently doubling every two days. Italy is every three days. In a sense, Italy is doing better than we are.

[wastoute]

It’s clear now we are days into the exponential phase of daily deaths which means the numbers of serious and mild are “upslope”. The magnitude of them is irrelevant to discerning where the asymptote for each group is. We went from “doing nothing” pretty much to “shut it down” a week ago. The asymptote for deaths will be then the asymptote for asymptomatic will probably turn out to be last Monday.

[wastoute]

I have an image that is a chart. B mail me your gmail address and I can send it to you. At least I think I can. Since you know how to post an image maybe you can share it.