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To: RoosterRedux
All governments are acting on the belief that most/nearly all who are exposed to this will become immune, otherwise there is no reason at all to attempt what we are doing as you can't bend the curve forever - even a few months of this might bankrupt the country and cause a depression worse than the 1930s. The fact that there has been so few reinfections seem to indicate it will hold true here (and some reinfections may simply not have actually died off entirely)

R0 is a measure of expected community spread for each person that gets a virus. The common flu has an R0 of about 1.3, which is to say that each person that gets the flu will infect 1.3 people (in the winter time, R0 falls off significantly in the summer as most viruses don't like heat). Depending on the R0 level, once you reach 50-70% of the population is immune, community spread is nearly impossible for most viruses as the spread drops significantly through basic statistics (ie R0 of 1.5 at 50% pop would be 0.75 and would die out, r0 at 3 at 70% is 0.9 and dies out). The higher the R0, the higher % of population that you need to be immune (60-80%). Once R0 goes below zero, it begins to die. However, if R0 goes below zero due to non-natural supression measures like we are doing, as soon as you stop those supression measures, the R0 returns to its original pace (likely 2.5-3 for this virus) and off to the races again.

R0 can vary based on transmission type, heat, humidity and other factors (sanitation, etc)

64 posted on 04/03/2020 9:02:45 AM PDT by rb22982
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To: rb22982

Thx so much for this. I will spend the next few hours trying to get this into my thick skull.;-)


65 posted on 04/03/2020 9:14:27 AM PDT by RoosterRedux
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