Seems there could be a couple of ways to look at it. If the virus was a herd there looks to be a lot of green pasture left. Globally. The reason IMHO we are “worst hit” is statistical. Most countries can’t do near the testing we do.
I just don’t think it is possible even with our tech and logistics to do testing and “catch up” to the virus in real time. So we really will never know what # of new cases today is. It just can’t be done.
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That’s a good summary and good information. You might also find this interesting from a FReeper who is a retired epidemiologist: good information for personal planning.
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3831814/posts?page=233#233
Also, the people most vulnerable might be those with diabetes, including the many who are diabetic and unaware of it (overweight, obese). Maybe that’s why we’ve see more young people and women more severely affected in the States than in some of the other countries.
COVID-19 Disease: ORF8 and Surface Glycoprotein Inhibit Heme
Metabolism by Binding to Porphyrin
https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/itempdf74155353254prod/11938173/COVID-19_Disease__ORF8_and_Surface_Glycoprotein_Inhibit_Heme_Metabolism_by_Binding_to_Porphyrin_v2.pdf
The enormous testing effort wasn’t done early enough, because there were operations problems (bad test kits for one). But it is happening now. And no, there aren’t so many positives in the population beyond what’s been found.
Look at the number of positive cases compared to the large number tested here. Those many negatives were traced from positive cases they had contact with.
https://health.mo.gov/living/healthcondiseases/communicable/novel-coronavirus/results.php
That was also explained here by someone qualified to do so.
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3831814/posts?page=233#233
Some of my neighbors have also been quarantined because of contacts with positives, been tested and found to be negatives.
On Wednesday April 1 I began tracking the number of ‘serious, critical’ cases being reported in the USA.
These are the people who may likely die in the next few days. If the ‘serious, critical’ number goes up, we will likely see more deaths. On the other hand if the various drugs being tested are effective in treating the virus, the ‘serious, critical’ number should go down.
Here are the numbers:
Apr 1 Wed 5005
Apr 2 Thu 5421
Apr 3 Fri 5787
Apr 4 Sat 8206
I will update the numbers each day on your posting so you do not have to.
Just to compare,So called regular flu 2018-2019 cases,between 37.4 and 42.9 million people contracted the flu,those led to between 531,000 and 647,000 hospitalization and 36,400-61,200 deaths.
2019-2020 flu illnesses 39million-55 million,18 million-26 million medical visits,400,000-730,000 hospitalizations,
24,000-63,000 flu deaths.
Don’t know if Corona virus numbers should be added to this year’s flu numbers of not,you tell me.
Corona virus total cases 311,658, recovered 14,967, deaths 8,492.
So is all this necessary or what?
I have only been keeping track of worldwide numbers and making a couple of graphs. The reason I have focused on worldwide is that there are many places with very poor healthcare; Covid-19 can sweep uncontrolled there, causing many deaths. It also presents the risk that even if the developed countries control the virus such that no new cases emerge, it can sweep right back in from those third world cesspools. If I were doing my own analysis, I'd break out northern hemisphere from southern hemisphere countries. This is because the common cold is seasonal, and this killer cold may behave in a similar fashion. If that is so, then new cases will decrease in the northern hemisphere as spring progresses into summer, but they will increase in the southern hemisphere as it approaches winter.
Anyway, here are my graphs, updated daily at 23-25 hour intervals:
The trendlines on this graph show that the case load continues to expand exponentially, with a very strong R square value showing that the data aligns very well with the theoretical numbers. I do not have projected case numbers to compare it to, so cannot give an assessment of how well the control measures are working. The worldwide death rate is now 5.41%, and 73.8% of cases remain unresolved. These numbers differ from the US numbers.
I have not done any further analysis on the daily changes.
A suggested calculation to determine effectiveness of sheltering. Numerator is number of new cases. Denominator is total cases less total deaths less total resolves. Compare percentage changes. My eyeballing says we went from over 20z% infection rate to 11% infection rate.
I've been workin', buildin' muscles
Oney's just been standin' 'round a gettin' soft
And today about four-thirty
I'll make up for every good night's sleep I've lost
When I'm gone I'll be remembered
As the workin' man who put his point across
With a right hand full of knuckles
Cause today I show old Oney who's the boss.
Hmmmm! What time is it? Four thirty!
Hey, Oney!
Oney! Ha ha ha ha!
....and I replaced "Oney" with "China"...
Thank you SO much!
D1... I appreciate the fact that you question China’s numbers. For those reading your post for the first time I just want to emphasize that China’s ‘numbers’ are garbage. And because of that the rest of the world is in the deep-stuff.
1. Metro New York
2. Ski Areas
3. New Orleans Area
4. South Georgia, around Albany
[The next county, the first one not in these categories, is Wayne County Michigan -- Detroit]
The number is cases per million population.
id blaine 18641
ny Rockland 15051
ny westchester 13501
la orleans 10178
ny Nassau 9838
ny queens 8861
NY Suffolk 8284
ny Bronx 8219
LA st j bap 7780
GA Dougherty 7523
NY ny city 7498
NY orange 7247
NY Richmond 7078 [Staten Island]
LA st James 7023
LA Jefferson 6910
GA Terrell 6434
NY kings 6339 [Brooklyn]
nj Bergen 6194
GA early 6185
CO eagle 6126
UT summit 5677
NJ Passaic 5666
co Gunnison 5442
NY manhattan 5381
NJ union 5272
la st Bernard 5230
NJ Hudson 5221
la st Charles 4780
ga lee 4566
NJ Essex 4516
This data is hand-harvested from the NY Times web site, but should be pretty complete. The times site has raw numbers and also a "per capita" tab
Alert, though. In one of my previous comments a few days ago I mentioned that we see a spike every four or five days. We are due for one if that pattern holds true.
I also posted under another topic an additional chart about testing at this link -- https://bit.ly/2VamxwS, if anyone wants to look over the testing data. My initial observation is that yesterday saw a big jump in testing as noted in that chart. So my guess is that movement will begin to show up in more cases per day in a few more days.
If only we can stay here and start to see a decline in the day over day increases. To me, that will be a good indication of the beginning of the end of this craziness!
IC CLEARLY
click on image to enlarge
Data from Worldometer
A question to confirm that I’m reading your information correctly.
Total deaths in the US as of the 4th is 8454? Correct?
Covid-19 4/5/2020
Daily change in case count.