Yes. I’m hoping that one of the outcomes of this will be a full set of tools (statistical analysis) that can be used to gauge a pandemic. Of course, we have a lot of those already, but I have to think they are insufficient. A lot of “experts” seemed to operate on guesswork this time around.
And the discussion of the “denominator” — when can we know how many have been exposed to a pathogen? Can we really gauge the danger of a pathogen if we don’t know how many people have been exposed? The numbers on rate of reproduction and mortality of COVID-19 seemed to be all over the place.
I think we need a common understanding that there are some things we can know, and some things we cannot know. And panicking over the things we cannot know might be a poor strategy next time around.
“Experts” predict the worst because there’s no penalty if they over-estimate the severity of a crisis. Only if they underestimate it.
They operate on the basis of guesswork in almost all epidemics. Look at Fauci & Birx’s track record on AIDS, SAR1 and MERS. Not exactly a confidence inspiring track record. Despite billions spent, not effective, safe vaccine for any of the three.