Ferguson and his modeling has never predicted anything correctly ever
No problem, just adjust the input and the output matches the theory. Count every death as a chinese virus and you get the number you want. If that does not work, salt the nursing homes with sick people, lock them up, let them stew, and more numbers.
This guy has a HISTORY of wildly inflated disease estimates.
Predicted 150 million dead from bird flu.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/30/birdflu.jamessturcke
Predicted tens of thousands dead from mad cow disease.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2002/jan/09/research.highereducation