Posted on 05/28/2020 6:18:13 AM PDT by Kaslin
What is the stock market telling us about the November election?
Despite the fact that America currently has over 38 million unemployed workers, the market is down 8.5% this year, having gone up 32% since the late March low. Why is the stock market going up while our economy teeters on the edge of a Great Depression?
There are several factors currently at work in the market with the most obvious being the extraordinary intervention by our leaders in Washington. Congress has authorized mind-boggling amounts of stimulus funds while the Fed has signaled that it is ready to purchase nearly anything and mostly everything. Even more spending and buying are sure to follow. This money flood is so massive that undoubtedly there are mind-boggling sums going into equities.
Washington's interventions in the markets has had a calming effect on prices and volatility, allowing investors to begin to look ahead to November, where it seems that President Trump is ever more likely to win re-election. There are several key reasons why more and more voters are beginning to lean toward Trump. Prior to the Pandemic Lockdown, America was enjoying a tremendous economy, which many voters attributed to Trump's pro-growth policies, such as cutting taxes and reducing regulations. As bad as current economic conditions are now, people are beginning to hope that perhaps the worst has passed. The economy is starting to be perceived as poised to improve rather than worsen, certainly a trend that greatly favors Trump.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
I humbly disagree.
The disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street is YUGE, and getting bigger all the time. The gap has been widening for a couple of decades at least. Wall Street is no longer a good indicator of what people are thinking in general.
Trump is going to win because his opponent is a demented perv who is going to be under constant bombardment by declassified details of Democrat corruption.
This will be a hard fought election. Trump supporters need to rally their communities and get as many like minded people to the polls as possible.
Is the stock market taking Dem voter fraud into account?
I, more humbly, disagree, Buckeye.
More people today have 401s than ever. It’s in the pocketbook, and makes them happy for their present and future.
No offense.
Against Biden, Trump will stomp him like a nark at a biker rally, but I don’t think the demsocraps intend to run Pedo Joe. Hitlery is gearing up for the run. I fully expect her to come on stage at the August demo convention and take the nomination.
The market is rallying due to easy money, future expectations, and the fact that most large companies listed on the exchanges have been insulated from the lockdowns. The lockdowns hurt small businesses, primarily. The mulinationals are doing very well.
one thing we know: this will not be a normal election, not even remotely.
it’s going to be difficult for Trump because cheat by mail seems to be getting real momentum...and the lawsuits will follow alleging disenfranchisement
Trump loyalists remain numerous and highly motivated
Trump also motivates the other side like no one else can, though I think some old folks who voted for him last time will be persuaded that he’s trying to kill them by opening up
Biden is irrelevant
Normal indicators are also going to be irrelevant
This is going to be like no election before
“The economy is starting to be perceived as poised to improve rather than worsen, certainly a trend that greatly favors Trump.”
You think? It came down to timing. If they (the left) shut down the economy during August, they might have a chance to prolong this stupid lockdown and affect the elections. But because summer is around the corner, they HAD to open up. And once you open up towards normalcy, the economy goes up.
To those who think I want this to happen, you're idiots. I don't want to live in an economic collapse of those proportions. It will be total chaos and war to boot. The fact is economic reality says you can not run an economy on nothing but air. Sooner or later, the consequences are going to hit. Almost all of this is because of corruption somewhere, btw.
I disagree, Biden's dementia and poor showing in debates will hurt him with the Independents, those who swing elections nowadays. He is also lackluster and uninspiring, can't imagine that helps the Dem GOTV drive.
The rats and the Rat media have dug in deep to protect Joe. It’s going to be a long hot summer.
Yes they will stop at nothing and use all tactics, but we can still pull this out with a great effort.
Stock market tells the tale of a $4 trillion budget defecit. That’s all.
Trump is a lock for re-election but it has nothing to do with the stock market. I would say that most of the mone in the stock market it owned by or controlled by people who hate President Trump’s guts. Most of your really big dogs hate Trump.
No offense taken. It’s a topic on which reasonable people can reasonably disagree.
I get your point about 401K’s. Mine is that the Dow can make gains every day and even return to it’s pre-COVID level and that is going to do NOTHING to help the thousands of salon, restaurant and gym owners on Main Street whose livelihoods have effectively been ruined.
Just like with QE, the market gets the money.
I will say this, though. There is a lot of construction going on in my neck of the woods. For starters, I just had a 30x60 garage built. But my local Lowes is more busy than ever and I was in there just a few days ago and I saw something I’ve never seen before:
They were out of 2x4 studs. Well, they had five, and I got two of them. They were in crappy shape but I only needed them for a planter box. But still...
Hi 1Old Pro -
I am not a citizen or resident of California, but recently I heard an interview with Mike Garcia (Republican that flipped the seat held by a Democrat) about whether he feared ballot harvesting. He said no, thta he learned from what the Dems had done in 2018; his campaign mobilized to do the same for Republican votes. He disagrees with the law, but decided to use it as the Dems had in order to level the playing field.
Gwjack
My gut tells me Trump will be our last president. But I’ve felt that way for a couple of years. This virus nonsense just feeds into that belief.
We are living in truly historic times this year. I’ve said for years that every year is more “interesting” than the previous one. 2020, like all the rest, did not disappoint.
Just wait until 2021, and 2022. Like I said, I think Trump will be our last president.
PRAY
Agree. We have yet to the full effects of unemployment and the inevitable stream of bankruptcies that are surely coming. There are also pension solvency issues rearing their heads. Our national debt now exceeds $25 trillion and the Fed's balance sheet is an astonishing $7 trillion. Our unfunded liabilities are an insane $147 trillion. What could go wrong?
Whoever is propping up the market has an unlimited amount of money.
The Fed is now buying everything in sight and has clearly become the lender of last resort. The Fed has established the Municipal Liquidity Facility to help state and local governments "manage cash flow pressures" and it will purchase up to $500 billion of short term notes directly from U.S. states. In other words, the Fed is already planning to bail out problematic states.
I have never seen anything like this.
Nor have I. The market has already recovered 7,000 points in a little over two months. Something is just not right.
Like you, the potential consequences of our fragile economic condition frighten me. I hope Trump can keep things together and get re-elected. If the Dems take over these times are going to look like the good 'ole days by comparison.
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