[Robert DeLong]

As Mediaite noted, the two elections the model failed to predict was the 1960 election of John F. Kennedy and the 2000 election of George W. Bush.

I would have thought one of them was Truman beating Dewey. 8>)

[SmokingJoe]

Truman beating Dewey in 1948 actually proves the good professor's hypothesis.
Dewey was ahead in the polls for most of 1948 just like Biden is right now. The media were convinced Dewey was going to win.
Truman ended up winning it.
Remember the front page of The Chicago Daily Tribune?