The big question is will Taiwan actually fight a brutal, bloody battle to repel an invasion and preserve their freedom? China will do all they can to demoralize them prior to an actual fight. In Taiwan’s favor, despite the huge Chinese military buildup, the Chinese Communist Party is terrified of the political backlash if they take huge casualities with an invasion. The Chinese army has many “only sons/little emoporers” in their ranks. The people will not tolerate losing their only legacy and child.
I have talked with some of the military personal. The guy I talked to convince me that Taiwan would not back down a bit
Taiwan should copy the Swiss (or what the Swiss did until recently). Send every conscript home with his rifle, a gun-safe, and 100 rounds of ammo.
Bring the person back, in a local context, once a year for a day of training, updates and BBQ.
Before long they would have a 2 million man militia. Even the most bloodthirsty mainland communist would think twice about invading. Permanent independence would be guaranteed.
CN logistically can overwhelm TW. It wouldn’t be easy, may take on significant human losses ... TW is outnumbered and its military supply chain is at a great disadvantage. So what keeps Cn in check?
One question is how would the rest of the world respond. Other than the US with possible limited support from Australia (really fumed about Whuhan virus) - there would be the predictable EU limp-wristed response - economic sanctions couldn’t do it, even if they could agree to it.
The US-Trump is really what is keeping them in place. He actually is good at this - publicly saying XI is a friend, blah blah blah and then attacking the CN. CN is flummoxed. I say CN attacks TW brings US into the fight in some significant way. Look at what is going on in the South CN Sea right now - our navy is sailing through there and the CN are angry about it. Obozo-Biden gave CN a green light that Trump turned to a red light. We are present there right now.
Meantime, no one has seen the CN-puppet, rocketman.