Posted on 07/17/2020 9:34:52 AM PDT by rintintin
“So we compare case counts to two weeks ago”
What’s the average lag time between contracting covid-19 and dying (for those that die(? Those dying now would have contracted it sometime in the past, perhaps a couple of months ago.
If the lag is, say, 60 days, then today’s deaths have little to do with today’s count of those contracting the sickness.
On average, it’s about 14 days from onset of symptoms to death for cases that end in death, but there’s a range from 6-41 days depending on the individual (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/).
Looking at the case counts graph, the 7-day moving average for cases began a sustained shift up around June 18-20. That would suggest we should see deaths begin to increase somewhere around July 2-4. That gets a little fuzzy with poor reporting around the July 4th holiday, but by July 7th, we see the current jump in death counts.
“On average, it’s about 14 days from onset of symptoms to death”
Wow! I didn’t realize it was that quick. Wonder if, as someone else suggested, the more frail people have already succumbed and those getting it now — well, I don’t know.
CDC says death rate is 0.2%
Seasonal flu is 0.1%
50% of deaths in the US took place in nursing homes, thanks to 5 Democrat governors. NY has more nursing home deaths than the total death count in Florida.
If you remove the 50% of negligent nursing home deaths, the death rate is near the 0.1% of the seasonal flu.
We flattened the curve without masks.
‘If college students don’t get back to campus, the Election is over.’
really...? so college students who are at home, where they have the right to register to vote, cannot vote unless they go to college...? I’m sure you are aware that they are not required to register in the college precinct, right...?
I know three people personally who had or currently have CoVid. The first was an old college buddy (~60 y.o.) who was one of the early cases, He lives in Georgia. He was sick in mid March, and hospitalized for 10-ish days. He spent about a week in ICU. He begged them not to use a ventilator on him, and that he would work hard by being a good patient. He spent 2 + days on the regular floor before he was allowed to go home. He is one of the success stories of the early days.
The next person is a nephew by marriage. Late 30s, lives in Florida. He got a sore throat after attending a bachelor party at a bar for one of his best friends. He had chills and body aches a day or two later, but never had any fever. Also had a mild cough. It never got any worse than that, and that part lasted only 3 or 4 days. This happened in mid June.
The third one I know is probably just finishing his quarantine. Good family friend in his late 20s in Ohio. He works at a restaurant, and one of his coworkers was positive, so they wanted everyone to get tested. Turns out he was positive. He didn’t have any symptoms, but said he felt a little “blah”, his exact words. Never developed any other symptoms. No sore throat, no fever, no cough, nothing. His time in quarantine should be finished yesterday or today.
While some ICUs are close to capacity I do not see reports that any Re overrun. In addition. even in Texas ICU beds are only 1/3 covid
‘Once this election happens in November, we won’t hear anything about it, especially if Biden is selected.’
I agree; whoever wins, this dog isn’t going to hunt anymore past the election, it will serve nobody’s purpose to hype it anymore...the news media will instead report on the vast strides we have made in defeating it, and the phony numbers manipulation, which several on this website seem to have swallowed wholesale, will stop being important...
should Biden win (a very distinct possibility) then the pivot will be made quickly, in order to justify gearing up the economic engines so Joe isn’t left floundering for too long with a moribund situation, and if Trump wins, then the virus fear mongering will have failed, and since they are caught in the economic mess like everybody else, they will have to move past him to more fertile ground, and poison the culture against pubbies for the next fifty years or so...
Oh and I forgot 2 more. One was my husband’s aunt, 90, almost 91. She is a victim of Cuomo’s nursing home policy. Another resident was positive, was sent to the hospital, then Cuomo’s orders sent him/her back to her the facility where Aunt J lived. After a few weeks they started having more problems, so tested everyone there. Aunt J was asymptomatic but tested positive. They isolated her. It didn’t take long before she said food didn’t taste good anymore. Maybe 3 days. Then it ravaged her body and she succumbed. It was late April.
The next person I know the family personally. My daughter’s boyfriend’s grandmother was in assisted living memory care facility in New
Jersey. Same story as with Aunt J. Someone who was CoVid positive was sent back to her facility. Then she got it. She was sent to the hospital, and they also returned her to the facility where she passed 3 days after being released. This was early May and she was 87.
That makes 5 total that I know personally. So now you can’t claim no one has heard or known of anyone with CoVid personally.
I know it’s not a hoax, but I know the hype surrounding it is.
You should read my 46 and 49.
"It’s barely a threat now. There’s just a lot of hype about it."
I don't consider something that kills ~1000 people a day "barely a threat".
“You should read my 46 and 49”
I did and also your conclusion: “I know it’s not a hoax, but I know the hype surrounding it is.”
And that’s also where I’m at now with the further conclusion that the hype is to defeat Trump.
I think you are mixing up all sorts of numbers and statistics, and I’m not sure I can unscramble them all for you. I also think you’ve put words into my mouth, or somehow misunderstood what I was saying. Perhaps I wasn’t saying things well.
What remains is that the chance of dying from this virus is very small and like a bad flu season for the most part. Ask the doctors on this board, and they mostly say this thing. Even the conniving CDC is suggesting this with their latest data.
I’ve had one elderly family member pass from this disease, so I do take it seriously. Would my husband’s aunt have passed this year without CoVid and Cuomo’s dictates? I honestly don’t think so. I think she would’ve been around for a few more years. We will never know now.
Each death is a human being, and that is tragic all around and for all the family members. Human life is precious.
However, viruses will do what viruses do and eventually they run out their course. I don’t think there’s a lot we can do other than take prudent precautions like washing hands, and stop touching our faces, and sick people should stay home. That is, until we reach herd immunity or get an effective vaccine. In the meantime, we are helping some people not succumb to this disease because we are getting better care their way earlier, and that is helping.
I can’t help but feel that every CoVid death we are hearing about isn’t an actual CoVid death. Take for example the motorcyclist in Florida that was counted as a CoVid death, but that makes very little sense. Was it a coding error? Was it deliberate?
There are a lot of ways to play with statistics and I’m sure you are well aware of this. How many of the new cases are actually from antibody tests, where the infection isn’t active. They are counting these as new cases, but in truth, they are recoveries from CoVid.
I am optimistic that we are getting somewhere with our treatments and our caregiving, I remain hopeful and I refuse to be scared by this disease. The media and the Democrats would love nothing more than to keep our economy shut down and everyone hiding away in fear. I’m not going to give in to that.
Just remember this, what fear really is:
False
Evidence
Appearing
Real
Now you know where I’m coming from.
Here is why case count doesn’t matter.
Epidemic 101: New Cooties! Oh no!
1. Quickly find test for new cooties.
2. Quickly do widespread randomized tests to determine baseline spread of cooties. Where is it, how much?
3. Repeat random sampling weekly to determine trajectory: increasing, decreasing, stable?
4. Figure out what brilliant ideas to try to decrease (if necessary). Masks, distancing, isolating old, etc. Try some in various locations near random sampling areas.
5. Examine new random sampling to see impact of brilliant ideas. Did any work? Are cooties going up, down, stable there?
6. Implement brilliant ideas that actually worked, widespread. Continue always weekly random testing. Watch cooties epidemic fade. Yay!
Note: You can’t test everyone in the US at once to find the actual spread (and later, trend). So instead, you do statistically valid random sampling of select locations. You use that data to estimate the actual spread and trend. Put it on a chart, hang it on the wall. Let everyone see it. Look how we’re doing each week!
Epidemic 101. Basic stuff.
What happens if you don’t do random sampling? Well then you have no idea if anything you are doing is working or not. And you have no idea how widespread the cooties are, and if they are increasing, decreasing. You have no idea, period.
You will have panic, fighting, strong opinions for and against brilliant idea but no resolution, more panic, confusion, chaos. People buying lots of guns. For-and-Against-Masks groups clubbing each other.
Case counts are NOT random sampling. Statistically they tell us nothing. They are ANECDOTES.
What???
Every. Single. Case. Is. An. Anecdote. It is not statistically valid data.
And the plural of anecdote is not (statistically valid) data. Increasing anecdotes do not tell us if the cooties is spreading more. Or less. Or anything at all. Epidemiologists roll their eyes at case counts. Especially as there is unlimited growth in number of samples each day! Anyone can go get a test now. Completely statistically invalid. No better than tea leaves or dried bones.
You can’t manage what you don’t measure. And we are not doing widespread random sampling of Covid-19. We are not measuring the spread or trend of Covid-19. Epidemic 101.
WHY??? Why why why why?????
Note: we are doing some sampling in some locations. Just antibody tests, and every 3-4 weeks(!). Tells us little. We need weekly random PCR and antibody tests or we’ll NEVER get a handle on Covid-19
And now you know.
I'm sorry, but this just IS NOT TRUE! The worst flu season on record had a maximum death toll of 60,000. Other years far less. Yes, there have been a few mis-attributed cases, but the numbers are so large that statistically they don't skew the result. I went through the exercise of looking all that up, doing the calcs, and posting it here. Of course, finding that post is virtually impossible.
Also, the records go down the the county level. With ~3400 counties in the USA, the likelihood of widespread fraud and misattribution is nil.
Duly noted. Thank you.
Well, if the outbreak is re-outbreaking, you’re gonna see caseload numbers spike right away, which drives the mortality rate down. Then, in a week or two, deaths will start to catch up from all those cases, and mortality rate will even back out to where it was.
Or, something else is raising the positive numbers like more testing, fake positives, false positives, etc. In which case the mortality rate will continue to drop.
Or, the virus strains have mutated enough to where their infectivity has gone up, but severity has gone down, meaning more cases and fewer deaths.
Give it a couple weeks from the initial case spike, and see if deaths go up then, or stay flat.
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