Trump Clinton Popular vote 2,362,631 2,189,316 Percentage 49.83% 46.17%
* Florida - always close and hard fought, Trump and Republicans do have some advantages here. His adoptive home state should carry him as it did in 2016 but it may be a long night.
* Pennsylvania - Will Democrat hijinks overtake general disgust at lockdowns? A big turnout by the energy sector could spell the difference.
* Michigan - In the upset of 2016, Trump flipped a once-reliable blue state. His populism and pro-Americanism play very well here where they saw a jobs rebound few expected and Obama said would never return.
* Wisconsin - This is a hard state to judge because of the riots and because Democrats are trying to thwart Trump at every turn. Populism themes play well here as in Michigan.
* Arizona - Once reliably red, this state has been turning more blue as fleeing Californians move in. There are a lot of retirees here (as in Florida) so Trump will need to fend off accusations of wanting to end Social Security (a constant Democrat charge over the decades).
* North Carolina - They are like a mini-Florida. A lot of Yankee transplants have moved here and swung the state increasingly blue. I think Trump still plays strong here but he won't have the state support of friends in high places that he has in Florida.
So, now let's try some math and figure out how Trump's EV lead gets whittled down below 270. There are only two states which can be flipped and give the election outright to Biden - Texas and Florida. If the Dems take either state, it's close to "game over" but I don't think it will happened based on past elections.
Anything else will require Trump losing two or more states to fall to defeat. That's the good news.
Losing Pennsylvania would be huge and any combination of Pennsylvania and another state like Arizona, Michigan or Wisconsin tips the scales to Biden.
Losing Michigan with a combination of Arizona or Wisconsin gets the election so close to 270 that even Maine's vote could flip the election. God help us if the margin is this thin.
Winning Minnesota gives Trump an extra cushion. It would be hard to see Trump winning there yet losing in Wisconsin and/or Michigan. Likely, they will all go together.
The question isn't whether Democrats can gum up the works in states like California and New York. Those are already lost causes for Trump and won't affect his EV totals. What will need watching is the upper Midwest, Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina and Florida as these will decide which party wins the White House. Biden will need to steal at least two states Trump won in 2016 and possibly three if he surrenders Minnesota.
Rather than stressing over the polls, many of which are fake, see the real challenge ahead for both parties - that Biden has to hold what he has plus steal a couple of states Hillary didn't win. It's 51 elections, not one.
chicagod dems collude with madistan and southeast wisconsin dems to bus illinois people up to vote and ‘find’ ballots
dane county always comes in last because thats where they stuff the most fale ballots
The Democrats are setting their sights on North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, and Arizona but Biden has absolutely no chance in those states. At the same time Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are still solidly Trump States. To compound problems for Biden, Minnesota, Oregon, Washington, New Jersey and maybe even New York could be moving to Trump.
Election night will be over by 7:00 CST in the same manner we knew the election outcome in 1984.
l8r
I see trump with 381 electoral votes
Trump needs to sit in the upper midwest & Pennsylvania. Forget NH & Nevada...going to be close but no cigar in those two states. Go all out for Minnesota; which I suspect is a real get for him.
Trump Clinton Popular vote 2,362,631 2,189,316 Percentage 49.83% 46.17%
How does President Trump NOT WIN more support and more votes after the completion of the three upcoming presidential debates?
Florida has replaced the election officers in a couple of the worst run voting districts. That should help.
Florida has replaced the election officers in a couple of the worst run voting districts. That should help.
Florida has replaced the election officers in a couple of the worst run voting districts. That should help.
Which states, by refusing to appoint their Electors, will tip the majority of appointed Electors to the Electoral College to Biden?
-PJ
More likely, a long couple of months. Florida may well fail to report their electors by the December deadline. That almost happened in 2000 (the insanity was brought to an end by SCOTUS) and is much closer to happening this year.