COVId-19 Update - 09/26/2020

My own workup | 09/26/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update # 192

As of 09/25/2020 23:15 PDST     United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST     WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST     Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you can find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02     the United States Situation
Section: 03     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05     the Mortality Report
Section: 06     Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information⁴
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Fatalities and New Cases in the United States

Fatalities rose by -43 cases from the previous day, to come in at 902
yesterday. That was a 5.85% decrease from the same day the week before.

New Cases rose by 12,705 from the day before, to come in at 58,668
yesterday. That was a 14.26 increase from the same day the week before.

New Case Declaration Clarification for the United States Yesterday

We need to look at two states yesterday, that had out of character
declarations for the day. The first is North Carolina, that reported
out 6,142 New Cases for the day. Generally, that state reports from 800 to
1,200 for the day. I did find one day in four days before yesterday, that
totalled over 1,600 for the day. That was also an unusual amount along the
order of yesterday, but it was within the rhelm of possibility. 6,142 isn't.
This means that our numbers were about 5,000 higher than normal due to
North Carolina's clerical correction.

In the other direction Rhode Island reported out a negative number. Granted
that numbers was only 130 cases, but add the normaal number of cases to that
and it would be a bit larger than that.

Case Clerical Corrections are reasoned, but they bother me non-the-less.
This North Carolina correction will impact the New Case numbers for the
United States, the regions outside China, and the global numbers.

Yesterday we saw a New Case Declaration record of 349,936. By rights, that
would be around 5,000 cases lower. Not those cases are valid, it's just
that weren't valid for the count yesterday. None-the-less, to keep the
number of Declared New Cases accurate, I have to add those cases in on
some report. And since I can't tell when each of those cases should have
been counted, I have to put them on yesterday's totals.

As long as you are informed about what took place, I'm okay with it. When
you look at New Case Declarations for yesterday for the United States,
the Global area outside China, and the total Global numbers, just remember
that you may want to downgrade the total there by about 5,000 New Cases.

Fatalaties and New Cases on the Global Scene

Fatalities fell by 43 cases from the previous day, to come in at 5,727
yesterday. That was a 2.35% increase from the same day last week.

New Cases rose by 33,122 cases from the day before, to come in at 349,936 yesterday.
This was a 1.78% increase from the same day the week before. It was also a
record day for both a Friday and since COVID-19 became a thing.*

The last 15 of 16 days have been a record for the day, and or a new record high
since COVID-19 came to the United States.

New Case Declaration Clarification for the Global Scene Yesterday*

Pleae consider that the North Carolina clerical case correction of 5,000
cases higher than normal, affects this Global New Case Declartion as well.
It wtill would have been a new record for one day, but it would have been
a closer margine.

Section: 02

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America

Here we go...

New Case Declarations rose yesterday. It was padded upward by a clerical
correction of around 5,000 cases.

Please take note of the Resolved Percentage level on the right.
It's also informitive to look up the data columns to see how the
situation has changed recently.

Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here are more of our numbers...

Active cases rose by a moderate amount yesterday.

Take note of the Serious/Critical case situation on the right there.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our slice of the pie has been increasing recently.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.

Yesterday we looked better in both these categories.

Active Cases in the United States / Chart

Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.

Note that this presents the single, seven, and fourteen day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.

Active cases rose yesterday. I'm not sure if anyone else sees this the way
I do, which translates to the possibility I am wrong on this, but I see the
flattening during the first two weeks of June, to have been the end of the
first wave. It looks like the end of the second wave right now.

The question is, where do we go from here? Are we positioning for a third
wave or are we going to start moving down in earnest? We'll soon find out.

Fauci has let it be know, he still thinks were on the first wave.

Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup

Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that. The size
of it just doesn't seem reasoned to me.

Why/how could the posive portion of the popoulace vary ass much as 2.0% from day
to day? I could a lot easier see a 2.0% trend over three or four days. One day?
Nah.

Testing fell off a bit yesterday. Those percentages a mixed bag.

That single-day figure is higher, while the three-day came in lower.

As for the 14-day, it will still be four more days before that single
day 9.988% day falls off the chart.

Things still haven't smoothed out here yet, but things do seem headed for
smoother sailing ahead. Four more days and we'll see the 14-day line drop
by 0.357% or so per day.

The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers. I may be wrong
not to do so, but I don't plan to put much weight in those figures for a
few days until they normalize.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

 

I like the New Case Declarations line right now. They are ever so slightly
moving in the direction of flattening.

The active case line has flattened out.

I have been saying I wasn't too happy with the Recoveries and Resolved Cases
lines there. At the present time they don't seem moving toward flattening any
longer. They may show some strengthling almost imperceptibly.

Compare to the rise of Recovered and Resolved cases on the Global Scene to see
a different more healthy trajectory. These look lethargic by comparison, but a
a little less so.

You can right click view to see the Global Chart enlarged.

United States Movers and Shakers...

I will present the U S States with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities rankings.

Here we go...

North Carolina and California took the top spots yesterday. Texas was the
actual winner of the New Cases category, as North Carolina only wont the
catergory due to a case adjustment of around 5,000 cases.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland thereChina

Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories

New Case Declartations rose by 33,115 case yesterday, but again, 5,000 cases
of that can be discounted do to North Carolina's case adjustment upward.

The resolved percent came in at 76.634%, an ususual drop on the day.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

Active Cases rose by a large number of cases yesterday. Serious/Critical
case rose up by a larger than normal amount also.

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Let's see...

This metric rose up considerably. Luckily this number does not count numbers
from the United States.

Numbers for the Global Scene grew by 30,122 cases yesterday. Once again, this
number is tainted by the 5,000 case clerical correction upward by North Carolina.

The blue line is creaping up slowly but surely. That North Carolina 5,000
case correction upward did not help us here. The chart tonight looks hither
due to it.

The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart

As in the United States' version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.

Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

<

The two charts above had looked like they were revealing flattening, but as
the days went by, they began moving upward again.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)

Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

Spain - OUCH! (Will you look at Spain! Wow!)

France - Ooo

To be honest, it looks like all these nations are showing an inclination to
move up.

I checked the parameters for Spain, and they were correct. That growth is
amazing.

Frace is suffering the same fate.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?

Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

Sweden has flattened out a bit after that correction a while back.

The Netherlands is just going ballistic.

We do need to keep it in perspective though. While the raw numbers do show
the Netherlands to be going orbital, the per million figures are still a lot
less than Sweden's.

Global Movers and Shakers...

I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.

Here we go...

India led out in both metrics again yesterday.

If things don't change with regard to India's case momentum, it will replace
the United States as the nation with the most Declared Cases roughly six
weeks out.

Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Agveraging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

 

This chart revealed more of a flattening, but no more. There have been some
drops in the numbers of Active Cases, and then the size of their increased
numbers as they grow recently. Both are good signs of a more healthy situation.

In the the United States chart like this one, the Recoveries, and Resolved
Case lines have not shown near the strength as is revealed here with these
upward bound lines.

That chart is provided here, in a small version, but you can see it full size
if you right click view.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.002% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

We fell to 76.694% Resolved Cases yesterday Globally. The rise in this
column has been very reliable over recent days, weeks, and months. So this
drop was unusual.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Active Cases rose up by a large amount yesterday, and Serious/Critical cases grew
by a large number also.

Section: 05

the Mortality Report

Here is the data for four entities...

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.

Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

In most regions the number of Fatalities fell off yesterday, but the Global area
outside China and the United States, the number remained static.

Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.

Here, let's look at data for the United States broken out by itself.

Our Fatalities fell moderately yesterday.

Seems like we've settled into a Ground-Hog day situation here, living the same
COVID-19 day over and over and over...

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.

We held our own yesterday, but the onther areas didn't fair as well.

and Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

I expanded the levels here yesterday. We had nations who were seeing serious
growth, and their levels weren't showing up very well at the top.

Over 50% of the 215 nations we're tracking now, have declared over 5,000 cases,
but they have far lees of them still Active. Over 25% of the nations we're
tracking have delared over 50,000 cases along the way. None of them have
anything near their declared amount remaining active. Keep that in mind.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.

And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

Out of the last 16 days, 15 of them have been a record for the day, and some
have been all-time records. Yesterday was a new all-time record. It came
in only a wisker under 350,000 cases, but here again the North Carolina
clerical correction added in 5,000 cases, so the day's totals should have been
5,000 cases lower. (approximately)

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

For months Puerto Rico was showing up with the Counties. That stopped in early July
if memory serves me well.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.

There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.

These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China has not updated that number once. So I do not inlude China in
the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding Testing, and any place that reports out
global testing numbers for a top level comparison.

We remained in 20th place here yesterday.

Over the last couple of months we've been in this rut from 19th to 16th place.

Now we're at 20th place for three days in a row.

Section: 10

Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Court Sesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers

Listed in the order of current utilization...

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories & Other Entities¹¹, Nations²¹⁹,
                and the CDC Provisional Counts⁵³
                Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
               Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC National Center for Health Services
               Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
               by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden

LINK   Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
               the University College London Genetics Institute

LINK   COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
               Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
               the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   R_t COVID-19
               Calculates and displays the R_t Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

                       

[lightman]

Pennsylvania Nursing Home (LTC) death stats for September 26

Based on data from the PA Department of Health http://www.health.pa.gov as of midnight September 25/26

LTC deaths = 5430 (up by 11)
Total deaths = 8103 (up by 22)

—if you need a calculator to figure the daily percentage you’re more mentally challenged than Slow Joe)—

LTC deaths as percentage of total = 67%

No odor of book cooking today—finally.

Tommie the Commie’s abysmal NE-US percentage remains firmly above 2/3 and in record territory.

[Sgt_Schultze]

Two minutes. Watch this. It’s horrifying.

[tiki]

My GD planned her wedding for 9/26/2020 and we thought surely it would be over. Our governor reminded us this week that there should be no crowds over 10 people. Well guess what, we had a wedding tonight w/400 people and it was beautiful. We were pretty sure the local law would leave us alone but worried a little about the state police but all was well.

One family wore masks and everyone cracked jokes about them. We ate, we talked, we danced, some drank, children were running around having the time of their lives. People from LA, TX, SC, AZ, CA. Old people, people with cancer, young people.

Funny story, we started a group to get our city and county elected officials to stand up to the governor and open up our county. The first thing we did was write a letter to the editor and we signed it with the name we chose for our group and they wouldn’t take it because it had to have the name of an individual so we signed it, Will B. Freeman and they took it.

[mdmathis6]

So looking at your chart...”the usa compared to other nations”: I get an overall expectation of fatality upon contracting the disease of 2.9 percent. That is a different number of course than the number one would get when one figures the vast majority of folks may never get the disease or were never going to be tested or had symptoms so mild that such persons never bothered with testing and treatment. I’m talking about the numbers of known resolved cases subtracted from total cases. The death rate is more accurately figured from the resolved cases which is the known recovered PLUS the known dead(either directly or with exacerbations of co-morbidities).

Subtracting the active cases from the total cases you get the number of resolved cases. The resolved cases are the number of recovered PLUS those who expired. At the beginning of the covids when you took the deaths and divided the resolved cases(dead plus recovered) some of the percentages ranged between 3 percent to 14 percent but the thought i had 6 months ago was that in 6 months one would see a flattening out of the death rate vs total resolved cases so that a more realistic expected fatality rated could start to emerge. That is the overall percent probability that a given individual would die after contracting the disease. After 6 months it seems to have settled out to around 2.9 percent overall (of those who contract the disease) currently.

There are some questions regarding the virus. Will it linger in various forms and mutations so that at some point nearly 100 per cent will catch one of the variants once or a few times in their lifetimes? Will it continue to remain as part of our constellation of viral groups(classic coronas(not the Novel 19’s), rhinovirii and classic influenzae that cause sickness to many yearly?

So in the mean time while we wait for answers, it does appear that for those US citizen 100 randomized persons unfortunate enough to catch COVID 19 over all in the US at least 3 may die. Now 100 persons with no comorbities who get the disease may have no deaths at all in that group. The cdc had stated that of the 180000 deaths (from 2 weeks ago) from covid, only 9000(5 per cent) died directly from covid and the rest had exacerbated co-morbidities averaging 2.6 comorbidities per person(in other words, persons had between 2 or 3 comorbid issues that complicated or were complicated by the covid infection).

So there we are... over all chances of catching the disease or catching it in a way that leads to very notable and serious disease, with sensible precautions in place are very small, based on the numbers tested and non tested in the first place. If one does get the disease and is diagnosed as having such, one’s over-all chances of dying with it, once having contracted it in the US are 2.9 percent. That fatality number also swings up and down for any given individual depending on age and comorbidities.

[Tallguy]

Great job as always, D1! I’m in Pennsylvania and the new daily declared cases are still bouncing between 400 & 800 which seems stubbornly high. My sense is that if we broke the data down by county we would probably see that there has been a spike in infections in college towns. I’ll have to see if the State Dept. of Health has the data...