Posted on 10/19/2020 12:05:33 PM PDT by John W
By almost every measure that political operatives, academics and handicappers use to forecast elections, the likely outcome is that Joe Biden will win the White House.
Yet two weeks before Election Day, the unfolding reality of 2020 is that it’s harder than ever to be sure. And Democrats are scrambling to account for the hidden variables that could still sink their nominee — or what you might call the known unknowns.
Republican registration has ticked up in key states at the same time Democratic field operations were in hibernation. Democratic turnout is surging in the early vote. But it’s unclear whether it will be enough to overcome an expected rush of ballots that Republicans, leerier of mail voting, will cast in person on Nov. 3.
There is uncertainty about the accuracy of polling in certain swing states, the efficacy of GOP voter suppression efforts and even the number of mail-in ballots that for one reason or another will be disqualified.
“There are more known unknowns than we’ve ever had at any point,” said Tom Bonier, CEO of the Democratic data firm TargetSmart. “The instruments we have to gauge this race, the polling, our predictive models … the problem is all those tools are built around quote-unquote normal elections. And this is anything but a normal election.”
(Excerpt) Read more at currently.att.yahoo.com ...
Well, surprise,surprise, surprise!...............
When Trump has thousands line the road in CA to cheer, I doubt Biden will win. Regardless of what polls say.
This is not true.
The surprise will be vote fraud doesn’t steal the election for Biden.
And the lies just keep on coming...
Democratic turnout will tumble on election day because so many were scared into voting early.
“Surprise” Trump victory? Really? Rip van byeDUHn is already surprised.
“The efficacy of GOP voter suppression efforts”
Disgusting.
We have two million volunteers doing gotv and we are suppressing. Disgusting accusation.
The Democrats have suppressed their own vote by their coronavirus fear porn.
They will whine about it after they lose the election.
I believe in J-school they refer to this as “telling the truth slowly”.
Oh man, what propaganda.
It will take that to overcome the new poll out showing Biden +18.
And how about the factor that Trump is out on the campaign working his butt off, while Joe is hiding in his basement.
“And Democrats are scrambling to account for the hidden variables that could still sink their nominee — or what you might call the known unknowns.”
After a lifetime in project management, I can tell you the ‘unknown unknowns’ are much worse than the ‘known unknowns’. You can budget for, plan for, the ‘known unknowns’ but not the ‘unknown unknowns’.
There is only one way that biden could take (not win) the election, and thats if its given to him.
I agree w/the road cheer in CA. My daughter was in Orange County yesterday and saw Trump’s motorcade. She said the amount of people cheering for the man was astounding. But the real surprise was the large turnout of support in Hollywood. Yes, Hollywood. Then, I watched Air Force One land at the Reno Airport. There were several hundred cars circling this international airport. One element we can’t measure w/polling is the enthusiasm for this man. In fact, I saw his SUV from about 100 feet and we exchanged waves. Trump gave us a big smile and we cheered. Made my day!
who will it be a surprise to?
He’s back up to 48 percent approval in rasmussen after hitting 44.
That was because of the slanderous attacks on Barrett.
I knew that would disappear.
The biden scandal can only help
46 strong disapprove.
And I can believe that.
I am fine with winning with 54 percent of the vote.
Calling between 305 and 330 EVs
I can’t wait to vote!!!!!
And I HATE going to vote!!!
That should tell us something about this election and who’s going to win
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