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Bet the Election
Townhall.com ^ | October 21, 2020 | John Stossel

Posted on 10/21/2020 3:26:13 AM PDT by Kaslin

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To: Kaslin

They really are delusional.

They believe their own BS, and those are worst type of deluded fools.


21 posted on 10/21/2020 5:36:09 AM PDT by rlmorel ("Leftism is the plaything of a society with too much time on its hands." - Candace Owens)
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To: Mr. K

You’re right.
They don’t need to go out and vote.
Their precinct captains will vote for them after the polls close and the Republican and Independent poll watchers are tossed out.
How do you think we had all those precincts with over 100% voters voting for Obama?


22 posted on 10/21/2020 5:53:37 AM PDT by Little Ray (The Left and Right no longer have anything in common. A House divided against itself cannot stand.)
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To: Kaslin
Insane. These bettors and these political pundits don't realize this isn't just a normal election. Trump voters know: this is for all the marbles. And what of the Gallup poll about whom your neighbors are voting? That one hasn't been wrong since its inception, and it says Trump will win re-election.

I'll say this, though: if Trump "loses", we should act as if he won and Demonrats cheated. Trump should not concede.

23 posted on 10/21/2020 5:56:36 AM PDT by backwoods-engineer (But what do I know? I'm just a backwoods engineer.)
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To: GeneralisimoFranciscoFranco

BetUS.com.pa I put $100 down last week.


24 posted on 10/21/2020 6:00:02 AM PDT by outofsalt (If history teaches us anything, it's that history rarely teaches anything.)
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To: HighSierra5
These polling companies will have a lot of splaining to do after the election.

I can't believe they are still in business after the 2016 farce.

25 posted on 10/21/2020 6:03:26 AM PDT by TangoLimaSierra (Your tagline sucked, so it was deleted - Admin)
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To: Kaslin; Mr. K; HighSierra5; chuckee; MAGAthon; GeneralisimoFranciscoFranco; Lisbon1940; Cathi; ...
Well, betting and voting are two slightly different things.

I was watching one of Bill Whittle's videos last night, and in it, he discussed a famous incident that happened at the world fair in 1904.

One of the attractions was a large ox they were giving away. You could guess the weight of the ox and write it down on a piece of paper. Whoever got the closest guess to the real weight won the ox.

The did a statistical analysis on the guesses (they had all the names and addresses) and were able to find out some interesting data.

The best guess was the mean of ALL the guesses submitted. The mean of all of them together came within a pound of what the ox actually weighed.

Using their researched data, they divided the people who submitted guesses into classes such as "Farmer", "Butcher", "Rancher", "Office worker", "Factory worker", "Housewife", and so on.

They found and interesting phenomenon-the average of no single grouping's guess was as accurate as the mean of the whole.

Even more interesting is...the people who should have been able as a group to guess better...didn't. The experts, people who SHOULD have been able to make on the whole more accurate guesses at the weight of the ox, missed it, and in some cases, missed it worse than other groups.

One would think Ranchers who were well versed in evaluating flesh on the hoof, or Farmers, or even Butchers, would be able to guess more accurately, didn't.

This oddity engendered studies, many of them to replicate and study this phenomenon. They found the same type of result again and again, replicating the initial one, the experts rarely, if ever, did better at making guesses on something they had expertise on.

In analyzing it, they realized two things had to happen for this to hold up:

  1. The people in the population had to be a diverse group. They had to include everyone available from the town drunk to the Mayor, housewives, maids, stevedores, accountants, railway workers, men, women, etc.

  2. They had to be unbiased. That is, they could not be exposed to "experts" would opine openly...it had to be guessing in a vacuum.

They found that if the audience was not representative of a complete cross section (that is, they only included farm workers, or only included miners), but they also found that if "experts" were allowed to influence the guessers...people would change their guesses because they became "biased".

This is a very meaningful type of study, and tells us why Capitalism works where a huge cross section of people vote for goods and services using their hard-earned dollars as ballots.

It also tells us one of the reasons why socialism does NOT work-a small group of experts typically does not make judgements as accurately as a large and varied group that is a real cross section.

There have been studies done and redone since the initial one, that all validate it.

I think all of those things apply here...to the polling, to the election voting, to capitalism vs. socialism, and to the economy in general.

26 posted on 10/21/2020 6:10:31 AM PDT by rlmorel ("Leftism is the plaything of a society with too much time on its hands." - Candace Owens)
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To: All

Furthermore, and most importantly for this thread, this bears on the “experts” in the media who are trying to influence people to change their “guesses”, to “unbias” them.


27 posted on 10/21/2020 6:12:05 AM PDT by rlmorel ("Leftism is the plaything of a society with too much time on its hands." - Candace Owens)
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To: rlmorel

Very interesting. Thanks for sharing it.


28 posted on 10/21/2020 6:19:19 AM PDT by Betty Jane
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To: Kaslin

The left have a fixation about making things up note everything they stated in this election.


29 posted on 10/21/2020 9:26:10 AM PDT by Vaduz (women and children to be impacIQ of chimpsted the most.)
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