“And I’d say ‘at least’ 25% of Democrats are crossover to Trump”
Yes, Kentucky actually IS a state where there’s routinely significant crossover by Dems voting Republican at the top of the ticket, and comparatively little of the opposite (Republicans voting for the D candidate).
Beware applying that theory universally, though. It’ll work well in Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi — all of them former one-party Democrat states, many of whose voters now wouldn’t cross the street to spit on Joe Biden if he were on fire — but analysts who are building in the same assumptions to their number-crunching in the critical swing states are much likelier to be wrong about that.
I’m in Tennessee, a non-party registration state. My little county is still dem at the local level, 70-30. At the state and federal level we vote red at exact opposite rate.