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How accurate are the covid tests?
Sebastian Rushworth M.D. ^ | Sebastian Rushworth M.D.

Posted on 11/28/2020 9:22:00 AM PST by Hojczyk

As you can see, the less prevalent the disease is in reality, the more likely the test is to generate a false positive result, and the less useful the test is as a method for figuring out who actually has covid. And the less prevalent the disease is, the more prevalent it will seem to be in relation to reality. If decisions about covid continue to be made largely based on what PCR tests show, we might never be able to call off the pandemic!

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is why PCR positive cases are a very poor indicator of how prevalent covid is in the population, and why we should instead be basing decisions on the rates of hospitalization, ICU admission, and death.

If we just look at the PCR tests, we will continue to believe that the disease is widespread in the population indefinitely, even as it becomes less and less common in reality. And that is assuming the rate of testing doesn’t increase. If we combine this built-in problem with accuracy, with a massive increase in testing (as has happened in most countries over the course of the pandemic), then we can create the impression of a disease that is continuing to spread wildly through a population, even when it isn’t.

(Excerpt) Read more at sebastianrushworth.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: chinavirus; chinavirustest; coronavirus; testing; tests
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1 posted on 11/28/2020 9:22:00 AM PST by Hojczyk
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To: Hojczyk

A long article ...looks at the covid tests (both PCR and antibody)

From article

In most clinical settings (including the one I work in), all the doctor is provided with is a positive or negative result. No mention is made of the number of cycles used to produce the positive result. This is a problem, since it’s clear that a positive result after 40 cycles is almost certainly a false positive, while a positive result after 20 cycles is most likely a true positive. Without information about the number of cycles, you have to assume that the patient sitting in front of you has covid and is infectious, with all the downstream consequences that entails.


2 posted on 11/28/2020 9:27:09 AM PST by Hojczyk ( )
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To: Hojczyk
To be sure, take 5 tests in the same day.

If 4 or more show positive, believe it.

If 3 show positive, take a 6th.

3 posted on 11/28/2020 9:28:25 AM PST by G Larry (There is no merit in compromising with the Devil.)
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To: Hojczyk

You have to be a chump to believe any of the numbers. This whole “pandemic” hysteria and panic is part of the means to get Biden elected. Connect the dots.


4 posted on 11/28/2020 9:29:00 AM PST by Cobra64 (Common sense isn’t common anymore.)
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To: G Larry

I’d rather take a fifth after the fifth.


5 posted on 11/28/2020 9:31:49 AM PST by gov_bean_ counter (Potemkin Joe - Everything about him is fake)
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To: Cobra64

Day after day no mention of flu deaths, hospitalizations. Just COVID COVID.


6 posted on 11/28/2020 9:34:19 AM PST by Engedi
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To: Hojczyk

Thank you for posting that. Certainly clears up a lot of misinformation.


7 posted on 11/28/2020 9:37:28 AM PST by DugwayDuke (Biden - Not My President!)
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To: Engedi

When we look on the bright side we've finally eliminated the flu and the common cold. /s


8 posted on 11/28/2020 9:37:34 AM PST by Tommy Revolts
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To: Hojczyk

https://summit.news/2020/11/18/top-pathologist-claims-coronavirus-is-the-greatest-hoax-ever-perpetrated-on-an-unsuspecting-public/

BTW, what the hell happened to this season’s FLU EPIDEMIC and..Oh, sorry. EVERYTHING from hangnails, motorcycle deaths to the flu are being called COVID!
never mind.


9 posted on 11/28/2020 9:50:33 AM PST by Dick Bachert (THE DEEP STATE HATES US! IT DETESTS TRUMP!!)
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To: Engedi

Reports from Australia and New Zealand show influenza rates at around 10% of the rates normally seen in their high flu season this past Southern hemisphere winter.


10 posted on 11/28/2020 10:00:46 AM PST by xkaydet65 ( )
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To: Hojczyk

Not very


11 posted on 11/28/2020 10:05:55 AM PST by khelus
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To: Hojczyk

“A long article ...looks at the covid tests (both PCR and antibody)

From article

In most clinical settings (including the one I work in), all the doctor is provided with is a positive or negative result. No mention is made of the number of cycles used to produce the positive result. This is a problem, since it’s clear that a positive result after 40 cycles is almost certainly a false positive, while a positive result after 20 cycles is most likely a true positive. Without information about the number of cycles, you have to assume that the patient sitting in front of you has covid and is infectious, with all the downstream consequences that entails.”

And that 20 cycle positive test is not for the entire virus nor for live virus. The test only looks for a segment of DNA.


12 posted on 11/28/2020 10:09:12 AM PST by khelus
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To: DugwayDuke
Thank you for posting that. Certainly clears up a lot of misinformation.

Change 'misinformation' to 'missing information' and you have the current state of information 'reporting'.

13 posted on 11/28/2020 10:09:20 AM PST by RideForever (We were born to be tested)
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To: Engedi

Health facilities get extra money if the diagnosis is covid.


14 posted on 11/28/2020 10:11:28 AM PST by abclily
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To: Hojczyk
Thanks for this quote. Everyday I try to imagine the world of the 20th C. before the polio vaccine was given to us. My parents spoke about disease and its victims as a normal part of the human life cycle. I cannot imagine my grandparents who escaped Europe with pennies, crossed the ocean - grandma's mom dying on the boat and she only 13, papa boarding the wrong boat alone at 13 beaten and forced to earn his passage to America - I can't imagine them fearful of one more epidemic to the point of huddling at home, going on relief (a shameful thing to do among American immigrants), and losing their little businesses. Never could have happened!

My dad fought under Patton, his only hero. He learned as a teenager to fight even when the fear overcomes you and to think under horrendous pressure. The population today feels fine taking a handout from its own tax collector and making every sacrifice asked by its all powerful government. One more request to sacrifice like in Hitler's Germany, to spy on your neighbor, and no one will feel freedom again (in my lifetime).

The one hope left is that maybe Trump did win in a landslide meaning secretly an overwhelming number of our citizens reject the tyrant's yoke. God I hope so.

15 posted on 11/28/2020 10:13:28 AM PST by The Westerner (Protect the most vulnerable: get the gov (CHINA) out of medicine, education and forests!)
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To: Hojczyk; 2ndreconmarine; 21twelve; 444Flyer; AAABEST; A.Hun; Alamo-Girl; alarm rider; Amalie; ...
Infectious Disease Ping - Covid-19 test reliability - BOTH PCR and Antibody

From the article
" In most clinical settings (including the one I work in), all the doctor is provided with is a positive or negative result.
No mention is made of the number of cycles used to produce the positive result.
This is a problem, since it’s clear that a positive result after 40 cycles is almost certainly a false positive,
while a positive result after 20 cycles is most likely a true positive.
Without information about the number of cycles, you have to assume that the patient sitting in front of you has covid and is infectious,
with all the downstream consequences that entails.

Exactly true and accurate about testing !!
MONEY QUOTE :
IF you don't know the number of cycles tested, then you don't truly know whether it is a true positive, or negative test result.
The difference is between quantity versus quality testing.

(My Comments): When I spoke with my daughter three weeks ago, who lives in Melbourne, Australia, and who is in strict 'quarantine lockdown',
she stated that she tested out as "high negative" covid exposure, where she works as as school teacher.
Apparently, the Australian populace are notified, after testing, whether they are 'high positive, low positive, low negative, or high negative',
depending on the number of cycles the test is administered.
So, if you don't know the number of cycles that the test went through,
then you don't know the reliability of the testing.

Even minor asymptomatic exposure will result in a positive test result due to the sensitivity of testing,
which may find residual broken filaments of the virus, even though the virus RNA is already dead, and not active.

16 posted on 11/28/2020 10:20:43 AM PST by Tilted Irish Kilt
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To: Hojczyk

I was going to post this morning

GMTA


17 posted on 11/28/2020 10:34:21 AM PST by Vendome (I've Gotta Be Me https://youtu.be/wH-pk2vZG2M)
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To: Tilted Irish Kilt

Hubby and I have been saying this, about the number of spins on these tests, causing the false positives.

Even Dr FRAUDci said the very sane, months ago.

They’re spinning it out so far that they’re picking up old, dead viruses.


18 posted on 11/28/2020 10:35:45 AM PST by Jane Long (Praise God, from whom ALL blessings flow.)
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To: Whenifhow; null and void; aragorn; EnigmaticAnomaly; kalee; Kale; AZ .44 MAG; Baynative; bgill; ...

p


19 posted on 11/28/2020 10:36:05 AM PST by bitt (The left gave us 4 years of Pearl Harbor. Now its time to give them Hiroshima.)
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To: Jane Long
Jane Long :" They’re spinning it out so far that they’re picking up old, dead viruses. "

True that !
So, if you were the government, and want to accentuate and increase the number of positives covid-19 "positives",
run the testing 40 times, and test will result with even the old, dead, residual virus RNA filaments, and you may find increased "positives".
Government authorities are still not medical authorities,
even though they feel empowered enough to tell you what they think, and yet ignore science.
If you don't know the number of cycles tested, the testing result is dubious, at best.

20 posted on 11/28/2020 10:55:32 AM PST by Tilted Irish Kilt
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