COVID-19 Vaccinations in the United States (Jan 14 2021 As of 9:00am ET)

Number of People Initiating Vaccination (1st Dose Received) in Long-Term Care Facilities: 1,225,493

In the last day:

About 1.25 million more doses delivered (down from 2 mil/day over the weekend)

871,000 People got their first shot (biggest day so far)

159,000 doses were delivered to Nursing Homes (inventory growth still outstripping use)

141,000 Nursing Home folks got their first shot (biggest day so far)

The biggest day so far in the Program.

Approaching the million per day rate, for first shots.

Knocking out the Nursing Home population at a seriously quick rate.

11 million got one of the COVID-19 vaccines already?

Those vaccines that are so “dangerous” and “rushed” and “deadly” and “modify your DNA” and have Bill Gates microchips in them and have “antifreeze” in them?

My God, there must be bodies everywhere!

“Virus is mutating... The vaccine won’t solve this.”

The Army is developing another vaccine at Walter Reed, that is designed to work against coronaviruses generally. It uses a wide collection of identifying coronavirus spike proteins, so it will protect against any of them. So far, it has only been tested in animals, so it is a way down the road, but it should be a strong tool in the future.

We have had a few variants of COVID-19 circulating, and two new ones have received particular attention, in the UK and in South Africa (which supposedly are more transmissible).

Phizer and Moderna were both effective against the earlier circulating variants, and Phizer’s recently released study showed it to be effective against these two new variants of interest as well (Moderna likely is as well).

Viruses mutate over time, to become less infectious and less deadly, as well as more. That is a common way that viral epidemics burn out. They mutate into and out of existence all the time.

“Should affect the death rate in a big way.”

Now that vaccinations are broadly opening up for those 65 and older, and those with co-morbidities, we’ll be directly targeting the population most at risk of dying, or being hospitalized. We have about 55 million over 65 in the USA.

By the end of January, we should have the first dose in pretty much the whole Nursing Home population in the US (which has accounted for over 40% of our COVID deaths), and be getting deep into the second shots.

So Nursing Home COVID deaths should collapse over the course of February, and overall death rates start heading down sharply over March - just due to the vaccinations.

The natural seasonal peak for COVID is an unknown. In any given cold and flu season, the peak for any particular influenza or coronavirus might come early, mid or late season (Dec thru Feb). So it is possible that COVID-19 might naturally have peaked, and be declining by then as well, on top of the vaccine effect. So results in March will be effected by the natural progression of this particular virus, this season.

As we exit cold and flu season though (April and May are the variable tail of the season), pretty much the great bulk of the vulnerable population should be protected by vaccine. By then, we should be mopping up, with almost all those at risk already immune from vaccination.

I am guessing that hospital COVID wards should be emptying out over March (plus or minus a month).

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