I’ll be happy if they can do by 2026. However, things are moving pretty fast for Artemis 1 now.
NASA has been in “dog ate my homework” mode on manned missions to the moon for fifty years.
I would not be shocked if it took them another fifty years to get there—and the excuses should be legendary.
As for the private contractors—they will milk the program for all the cash they can get—but at the end of the day I expect to see the Chinese colonizing the place and tearing up any space treaties.
The US has gotten tied up in knots with bureaucracy, anti-white racism, and just plain stupidity.