Posted on 06/03/2021 12:28:00 PM PDT by blam
Rising lumber prices have been a major source of inflation concerns. It’s one thing when the price of lumber doubles… and a whole other thing when it goes up 5-fold!
Yep, that’s right. Lumber prices have rocketed higher over the past 18 months, surging 5 times the COVID crash price low.
Something’s Gotta Give!
Today’s long-term “monthly” lumber chart highlights why there is a potential for a reversal / pullback in lumber prices over the coming weeks/months.
As you can see, the surge in lumber has price testing the 261% Fibonacci extension level, as well as the underside of the 40-year overhead rising resistance line at (1). Note as well that momentum is near its highest levels in history! Seems like a good area for a pause…
So how do we know if a pullback is underway? Watch that trend line! The steep up-trend line (3) offers short-term support. If it breaks, it could be “Timber Time” for lumber! Stay tuned!
$94 for a 12’ piece of untreated 2x6 at Lowes last weekend. I’m sad I burned all of my scrap 2x4. I could be rich.
I used to drive past and ignore lumber laying along the highway. For the price they charge at the box store it will be a free for all for lost lumber now!!
My understanding is that the price rise is intentional, by holding back lumber at the origination/source points.
The retail prices can be made to rise further, or quickly descend, depending on the forces in control at the sources.
23.33 at lowes online here in commifornica.
https://www.lowes.com/pd/Top-Choice-2-in-x-6-in-x-12-ft-Fir-Lumber-Common-1-5-in-x-5-5-in-x-12-ft-Actual/4082908
The problem is we haven’t had the current level of government deficits per GNP in the past 100 years, which may make a 40 year trend analysis worthless.
You think that’s expensive, you should see what they’re asking for a 261% Fibonacci extension level. The old bubble in the glass always worked well enough for me.
Then they’re gouging at my local. I was only browsing. I can’t imagine having to do actual projects right now.
I understand landowners aren’t making a dime more in stumpage fees and loggers aren’t get paid more for their efforts. Also, sawmills aren’t making a killing either. Who’s making all the money?
They could be. The link at lowes says unavailable right now. Oh well.
Since when is Technical analysis a science?
my husband has built several raised beds...3feet high...out of reclaimed pallets....10 so far....
“price rise is intentional”
What is the intent?
That graph looks a lot like the election night spikes in the middle of the night.
Yep, I'm using mine for various projects as well.
“Who’s making all the money?”
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My question, exactly.
Tree Growers?
Tree Cutters?
Tree Haulers?
Sawmills?
Wholesalers?
Retailers?
I’ve gone so far on a few small projects of making my own boards from trees I have cut down. It takes some work but I have made ax handles, hoe handles, spoons, even a frame saw from backyard trees. I just couldn’t see paying the price of a board for something I could make.
What.. did it go up in the last 2 weeks. I am replacing rotted wood on my porch and paid 22 dollars a board for pressure treated 2X6 .. 12 footers.
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