Posted on 07/17/2021 6:09:40 AM PDT by blam
•The price of lumber futures has fallen to its lowest level since November 2020, erasing this year's dizzying gains.
•An investment chief says the price of the commodity could reach its pre-pandemic level in the next 12 months.
•He added, however, that the price trends will vary by geography.
Prices for lumber futures have descended to levels not seen since November 2020, erasing this year's dizzying gains amid a cooling demand for the red-hot commodity.
Lumber prices fell for the 10th consecutive week to trade at $536 per thousand board feet - 67% lower from their May 7 peak of $1,670 per thousand board feet. Around a year ago, the commodity was hovering just above $400.
Despite weeks of decline, there is likely room to fall further, said Stuart Katz, CIO at wealth management firm Robert Stephens. He said the price of the commodity could reach its pre-pandemic level in the next 12 months, but whether prices remain at that level is the real question.
"This is a dynamic economy," he said. He added that in order to predict the price of lumber, one must make a number of assumptions about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the ability of home builders to pass along price increases or take margin compressions.
"You can't lean on history when you turn off and then reopen the largest economy on the face of the earth," Katz said. "No one has the crystal ball, so you need to look at the key fundamentals which provide push and pull pressures on, ultimately, the equilibrium of the price."
One thing he is certain of is that the price trends will vary by geography.
"There may be regional aspects of this," Katz said. "There's an aggregate lumber price but because of some of...
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(Excerpt) Read more at markets.businessinsider.com ...
The price drop will only be transitory.
Will ammo do the same?
I seriously doubt it.
2x12x16ft... 65 bones
Restart the CCC Camps.
Nope. Never happen. SloJo and the Ho will see to that.
They’ve already sparked the kindlin’ under the inflation fire.
I paid $17 and change for an 8’ pressure treated 4x4 a few weeks ago.
Especially when, in clown world, consumers have been subliminally acclimated to be fully self-absorbed and be oblivious to the larger economic environment. Long live instant gratification......
Well 7/16” OSB sheathing is down from $56 to $46 so that’s something. Will it go back down to $9 per sheet? I doubt it. Prices never go back down to original after a rise.
Remember when obama gas prices went up and so did motor oil? Gas went back down but motor oil never really did. Went from 2 to 6 and back down to 4. Overton inflation.
Just bought a couple of those last week at Home Depot...they had the old price up yet which was 17 bucks but they had dropped down to 10 bucks.
What really pizzes ya off is the fact that timber buyers don’t want to pay anymore for timber, even though the price of lumber is 5x as much.
I’m not sure how open folks are to this bit of reality, but the lumber price spike wasn’t purely a Biden phenomena. Trump’s trade strategy set it in motion by adding tariffs onto Canadian lumber (Also pushed the price of steel up 25%, which began to incentivize more US steel production which is strategically very positive.).
Historically low interest rates and a nation stuck at home for a year tackling remodeling projects and rethinking working from home also played big parts, as is the nature of the lumber industry which is not built to respond to changing supply factors quickly.
Not everything is “my side good, your side bad”
Inputs like energy, payrolls and taxes are up and not likely to recede.
Secondly, why should lumber prices drop when builders are paying the higher costs? The pricing will fluctuate, but they will not return to Trump level normal while Biden and his brown shirts rule the roost.
Local lumber yards are the fullest I have ever seen, both logs and finished lumber. The bottleneck is apparently shipping, not enough drivers.
I recycle old lumber for smaller projects. Time consuming. Saved me a trip or 2 to the dump. When 2 x 4’s were $4/pop I still didn’t buy them unless needed. Picket fences were made of old siding. The posts were 7’ apart due to the ends of the old 2 x 4’s being ‘used’. Much more satisfying. The materials are good for another 10 years minimum. Even nails. Much stiffer in the old days. Sticking it to the man-it’s more fun that way. My own Green New Deal.
Not enough drug-free drivers, not enough (electronic-logged) drivers who are being kept down on miles-per-day from their previous long hauls and bonus pay.
I like extending the lives of old things...I've always tried to do more with less. Throw away less.
Here is a guy just down the road from me, Charles Phillips. His dad Sidney C. Phillips was our family doctor and delivered three of my siblings. A local hero, etc.
Click on his name, you'll love what he has done with the family estate out here in the country.
Looking forward to $3.00 2x4x8s again.
This farm runs on 2x4s!
Sure hope so. I’m waiting to do 2 projects because of insane lumber prices.
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