At this rate, there will be 50,000 Russian casualties by the first day of summer. The Soviet Union called it quits after 8 years in Afghanistan with only 13,000 casualties despite having 2x the population of modern day Russia.
I would expect that even the Russians do not know their true casualty rates at the moment. What is being reported is pure fiction on all sides. It is hard to predict the outcome.
To the extent that losses can be known, they are certainly not to increase according to a linear projection. The biggest losses will be in the big push to take the major cities, especially Kyiv. However, gross casualty levels will not determine the outcome. The side that runs out of ammunition, food, and supplies first is the one that is guaranteed to lose.
The Russians should have completed their preparations for their next major assault on the city in another week. Yes, they are behind schedule, but they will continue to the next phase. That campaign either works in the next 30 days or the Russians will consolidate to the east of the Dnieper River and declare victory.
Nothing is certain in war. The Russians can still lose. And even if they "win", it will cost them more than they can gain. Tell me again why the Russians though this was a good idea.
It will be a cold, nasty spring in the rest of Europe without the Russian oil and gas exports. That is why I do not believe the Europeans will do anything effective to stop the Russians.
We will not do anything effective either. Our political elites want the distraction of a good war to turn attention away from their activities, but they do not want to pay the costs of a real war. Those costs include a potential replacement of said elites.
"Unexpectedly".