[Drew68]

Putin's floundering invasion

When only the losses of one side are considered newsworthy, it's easy to think the other side is winning.

In truth, Twitter is going to have a meltdown in the coming weeks. The bulk of the Ukranian army, which has been stationed on the east fighting the DPR/LPR breakaway factions since 2014, is facing total annihilation. They'll be surrounded in the Donbas kessel, cut off, and wiped out after which the Russian army will regroup and take Kiev from the south.

And all those airplanes were sending them? The Russians will crater every useable airfield in Ukraine, leaving only NATO bases from which they can operate.

[roving]

Sadly, this is true. Russian will take Ukraine in the end, but he will pay a price for it for yrs to come.

[buwaya]

That may be, but the forces Russia has so far deployed cannot realistically be depicted like that. There are too few to constitute contiguous linear front lines. At best there are concentrations on some roads with the rest being “held” with an intermittent patrol. Recall that such frontages in WW2 absorbed a million men or more. And as far as manpower goes the Ukrainians, being on homeground, can mobilize 2 million+ over time, while Russia has to build the logistics (railheads, roads, truck convoys) to expand beyond the limited forces they have there. The Ukrainians also have plenty of strategic depth, plus for guerilla war they have “sanctuaries” and endless foreign logistics. Its very likely to be a very long costly war.

Long term (in a year) Russia simply hasnt got the industrial capacity to replace losses. The long peace has affected them as much as anyone. It was building only a couple of dozen aircraft and under fifty tanks a year. That cant be expanded quickly.

On the whole it is a stupid war. Why expend such resources to dominate a people that hate them?