Most Russian success is occurring in the south where the Russian Navy is able to land troops and supplies without much disruption. That could change if the Ukrainians obtain more jets armed with air to ship missiles or long range drones similarly armed.
My guess is that the Russians will try to seize Odessa and then go up north through the Dnieper River and then call for a cease fire. It will probably cost 50,000 casualties for Russia. Zelenskyy will preside a landlocked Rump state in the Western part of the country
I was reading today that due to somewhat dubious roads, the vast majority of the Russian military and its equipment is transported by rail. It also said that in the opening days of the war the Ukranians severed almost all the rail connections from Belarus and Russia into northern Ukraine. We’re also getting into the “rasputitza” or season of mud that occurs in early spring. This makes off-road travel difficult or impossible. These may at least partially explain the Russian logistic issues.
CC