Posted on 04/27/2022 8:37:02 PM PDT by Cronos
Poland has been preparing to give up Russian gas fuel for a long time, so Gazprom's decision to turn off the tap did not surprise her. Rather, the inevitable has accelerated. Poland's energy security should not be jeopardized, but the gas turmoil may again have an impact on Poles' bills in a few months. The former president of PGNiG draws attention to one important element of the entire gas puzzle.
On Wednesday at 8.00, Gazprom will officially suspend gas supplies to Poland under the Yamal contract . The day before, journalists reported that gas fuel transmission from the east fell to zero. The Ministry of Climate and Environment called an unannounced press conference on Tuesday evening, during which the head of the ministry, Anna Moskwa and Piotr Naimski, assured that Poland was ready to cut off gas supplies via Russia.
We are ready for full independence from Russian raw materials, Minister Anna Moskwa emphasized during the conference.
The Russian company informed PGNiG that the suspension of supplies would take place in accordance with the provisions of the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of March 31, 2022, due to the Polish side rejecting the possibility of making payments in rubles.
According to media reports, Gazprom is also to cut off Bulgaria from its gas from Wednesday. The company's decision may be perversely defined as the imposition of sanctions by the Russian Federation on itself
According to the calculations of the Polish Economic Institute , Russia's revenues from customs and taxes related to natural gas extraction in the first two months of 2022 were the highest in at least four years and amounted to over EUR 5.4 billion. Just as Europe is dependent on gas from Russia, so is Russia dependent on billions of euros from the European Union
Gazprom has accelerated the inevitable
Gazprom's decision only accelerated what was to happen anyway at the end of this year. Poland did not intend to extend the contract with Gazprom for the supply of Russian fuel. Therefore, Polish gas storage facilities are already full in April at an unprecedented level for this month - 76 percent. In other European countries, gas tanks are filled to about 30 percent. Therefore, such a move in relation to other EU countries would be much more dangerous from the point of view of energy security.
Energy expert and journalist Jakub Wiech believes that Poland is able to cope without gas supplies under the Yamal contract. Especially since there have been cases where Gazprom "turned off the gas tap" before, and not in such a distant past.
We are ready to suspend gas supplies from Russia. We have our own gas extraction capabilities, we have the possibility of receiving LNG through the terminal in Świnoujście, we have interconnectors and almost full warehouses. Gazprom has already suspended gas supplies to Poland in the past. Such situations took place, for example, during the NATO summit in Poland and the visit of Donald Trump, but they were short-lived. However, now, judging by the letter sent by Gazprom, you have to take into account a longer break - says money.pl Jakub Wiech.
The stored gas fuel gives Poland the time needed to complete investments such as the construction of the Baltic Pipe gas pipeline , which will be delivered to the Vistula with gas from Norway. From May, the possibility of deliveries through the gas pipeline connecting Poland and Lithuania, to which gas is delivered via a floating LNG terminal, will start.
Additionally, Poland can buy gas in reverse from Germany and obtain it on European markets. Of course, it is not certain that gas supplies from Russia in the coming months will not be realized again until the end of the contract, which expires at the end of the year. Piotr Naimski, the government plenipotentiary for strategic energy infrastructure, emphasized during the conference that all Polish gas needs can be met from other
" Perhaps this is the end of gas supplies to Poland from Gazprom. If the attitude of the Russians does not change, i.e. if their demands for payment in rubles do not cease, and if there are no extraordinary circumstances on the Polish side, April 26, 2022 may go down in history as the end of the Yamal contracts, concludes Jakub Wiech. "
Former president of PGNiG, Grażyna Piotrowska-Oliwa, is of the opinion that we will have enough gas supplies until at least summer, of course if Poland only uses this source. Although, as Anna Moscow announced during the conference, there are no such plans at the moment.
- It all depends on how long it will take. Official data show that the warehouses, with a capacity of 2.85 billion cubic meters, are approximately 80 percent full. - points out the interlocutor of money.pl.
If it is not possible to obtain gas from other sources, these reserves should last for about two months. Out of four if we diversified our consumption with other sources, such as a gas terminal. Half of the gas supplied to the Polish market is Russian gas purchased under the Yamal contract, says Grażyna Piotrowska-Oliwa
However, there is a danger. It is still uncertain how many other countries Russia will cut off gas in the near future. It is not only Poland that has decided not to pay for gas in rubles. More recently , the European Commission stressed that such payments will be a collapse of sanctions .
If the Kremlin cut off half of Europe from its gas, the demand for the raw material purchased on the stock exchange would increase. In a situation of strong demand, prices may soar. We saw a similar situation last year, when gas prices - due to Moscow's policy - increased significantly.
It is a fact that gas fuel prices react quickly to this changing situation. It was already visible on Tuesday, when information on the potential cut-off of Poland from supplies affected the prices on the Dutch stock exchange.
The problem is completely different. We will use gas purchased on an ongoing basis. In a situation where gas is turned off not only in Poland, the prices of gas available on exchanges will immediately increase. Unlike oil, you cannot increase your daily output quickly. It does not work like that. The warehouses are there to be filled in summer, when gas is cheaper, and to be able to use them in winter, in the season of the highest demand, sums up Grażyna Piotrowska-Oliwa.
In the case of individual customers in Poland, high gas purchase prices are buffered by tariffs regulated by the President of the ERO. However, gas prices for entrepreneurs and industry were freed up a few years ago. Therefore, in their case, high gas prices on commodity exchanges are basically one-to-one.
In the fall and winter, gas prices for entrepreneurs rose by several hundred percent in some cases. The situation may repeat itself this year. The more so as we are ready to be cut off from Russian gas, but just like our warehouses - not 100 percent.
Piotr Naimski said during the conference that "perturbations" on the gas market may last about two years.
- This market will stabilize when European customers will be able to deliver to Europe from outside Russia the amounts of gas that are currently sent by Russia. It is a matter of using fully gas terminals in Western Europe, adding certain elements of gas pipelines so that all of this could reach the recipients and it will take some time, probably around two years - said Naimski
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/26/business/poland-gas-lng-russia-usa.html
There have been at least seven interruptions, either complete suspensions or restrictions, in gas supply to Poland in the 18 years prior to April 2022. Depending on the type of incident, these interruptions that lasted from a few days to half a year
Any thought of coal as a backup power source? That’s assuming Poland has mothballed coal power stations available.
Germany should not have mothballed its nuclear power stations in the wake of Fukushima.
I thought it was a knee jerk reaction, but now wonder about East German Angela Merkel’s role.
This cutting of gas is going to be painful, but we knew about this from 2014.
No idea, but that’s a very distinct possibility. The same for Germany. Both countries have lots of coal.
The greens will have to shut up until we build nuclear power stations.
Don’t worry Poland,you can always rely on Germany for a good time /s
Idiots...
You have to admire Putin’s brilliant sense of planning
Let’s attack with nice heavy tanks during spring thaw along back roads which can be blocked.
Or blown up.
Forcing them to get stuck in the mud.
Now let’s cut off gas supplies in spring as the demand for gas is dropping.
Thus is genius level 5d chess played with checkers
In the years to come the US and Israel will step and fill some of this demand. Great news for Texas.
As you read in the article
1. Poland has a stock of inventors for 2 months
2. It already planned to end Russian supplies this year
3. It has a pipeline set up for gas from Norway
4. It has set up import ports to import American gas
The German bit is only option 5 and temporary.
Yes.
North American producers will see a boom.
Zhang is right that this will bring coal plants back online. And nuclear power stations will be greenlit. The latter will take time, years yes. But this will switch off people from Russian gas in the medium to long term
Should have waited until May to attack after the spring thaw is done.
Price of gas will go through the roof, and Putin will make a killing.
How do they know where Norway’s gas comes from? Norway could sell its domestic gas, but replace its domestic supply with Russian.
A smart President would be ready to export fuel to Poland at a blink of an eye....oh...we don’t have a smart President.
Curiouser & curiouser...
Kind of brings to mind the suspected Putin ‘purge’ of top Russian gas executives
ARTICLES:
1- “A Wave of Mystery Suicides of Russian Gazprom Executives”
https://warsawinstitute.org/wave-mystery-suicides-russian-gazprom-executives/
2- “BLOODY ENDS Putin ‘purge’ fears after FOUR ‘suspicious suicides’ of top Russian gas executives ‘linked to Kremlin inner circle’”
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/worldnews/18343407/putin-purge-four-suicides-top-russian-gas-executives/
3- Two Ex-Russian Gas Company Execs Found Dead Along With Their Families in Two Days
https://news.yahoo.com/two-ex-russian-gas-company-150435419.html
[You have to admire Putin’s brilliant sense of planning
Let’s attack with nice heavy tanks during spring thaw along back roads which can be blocked.
Or blown up.
Forcing them to get stuck in the mud.]
* Ukies found dress uniforms among the gear stowed in Russian armored vehicles.
Making themselves independent of Russia's gas makes them "idiots"? Why?
“The greens will have to shut up until we build nuclear power stations”.
They should shut up but they won’t....until next winter.
Contracts are signed years in advance.
And Putin has infrastructure, pipelines to transport gas that will go idle.
He had to sell gas at steep discounts to India and China, so he would make the opposite of a killing.
Oh, this is going to hurt Poland and Bulgaria, no doubt, but it’s not the death blow it would have been 18 months ago
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