We have what 5 months to go. This constant ‘we are going to take the house’ stuff is going to make people not bother to vote or make the dems come out in force. Does no one know the meaning of ambush?
They will adjust the polls to show a surge to the democrat side.
The two metrics that determine midterms are the presidential approval rating and enthusiasm on election day. At the moment, republicans have a +13 enthusiasm factor on the democrats and is growing and we know about Biden's approval rating.
There are also precursors that never fail. In the primaries to date, republican turnout has increased 40% over 2018, while the democrat turnout is up only 1%. This is solid evidence that republicans are motivated and will get out and vote. This is a highly predictive metric.
If it helps, per Politico, at this point in the midterms, history has shown that the election dynamic is set - in other words - nothing has ever changed the dynamics of a midterm at this point in time. If anything, the democrats will be more toast in November, than they are today.