Posted on 09/01/2022 8:20:08 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
For the second time in as many weeks, Democrats have won a competitive special election. And by the numbers, this win was even more impressive than last week’s victory in New York’s 19th District.
On Wednesday, the Alaska Division of Elections announced that former state Rep. Mary Peltola had defeated former Gov. Sarah Palin in the special election for the state’s vacant U.S. House seat, becoming the first Alaska Native ever elected to Congress and the first Democrat to win a statewide election since 2008.
[SNIP]
Democrats have clearly overperformed in special elections since the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion in Dobbs v. Jackson in June, but the reasons for Peltola’s win may have been more local than national.
Namely, Palin was a very flawed candidate. After her 2008 vice-presidential campaign flopped, Palin resigned the governorship (reportedly amid ethics investigations), bought a house in Arizona and went on to appear on reality TV — giving Alaskans the sense that she had abandoned them. According to a July poll from Alaska Survey Research, 61 percent of Alaska registered voters had a negative opinion of her. It’s hard to win with those kinds of numbers.
It seems likely then, that had a different Republican advanced to the final round, Peltola would have lost. According to that same poll — which almost exactly nailed the final margin between Peltola and Palin — Begich would have defeated Peltola 55 percent to 45 percent if he had made it to the final round instead of her. That would still have been bluer than Alaska’s R+15 partisan lean, but it mostly demonstrates how much of Republicans’ underperformance here may have been due to simple candidate quality (or lack thereof).
What’s more, that Republican underperformance disappears if you look not at the results from the final round, but rather at only first-choice votes.
Sorry, but this is bs. It’s not nearly over until November, and the Alaska abomination is NOT indicative of what’s coming.
Rank choice voting guarantees voter fraud.
I heard that 60 per cent of the whole election had voters voting REPUBLICAN.
I think that means, in the whack job system in Alaska, Palin stands a good chance of winning in November, after all if she only gets 51 percent of the vote, Palin wins.
Rank choice voting is the "honest" way for the Demonrats to steal elections, and there is nothing that we can do about it.
Because she came in second, it will be her, Palin, against the Native American.
It isn’t just rank choice voting, it is RHINOs who would rather see a Dem in office than a MAGA. That was Beich (?) whole purpose as the second Repub in the race, to divide the Repub vote — and it worked.
It sucks but they have a chance to get their act together for the November mid-terms and win the seat back.
The "ranked-choice" ballot or whatever they call it seems kind of sketchy to me.
I don’t think so, the papers here said that all three are running again.
But the native American is Dem, no?
I’m looking at 60 percent voted republican. If the native is republican, then that is a different story.
Is she??
No, it’ll be a replay of the primary, going through the same rigamarole....with all the candidates as I understand it.
Begich or Palin will likely need to withdraw to avoid the split R vote unless there’s a change of heart from R voters.
This whole article is BS.
Rank choice voting is the problem.
Here in Maine’s Second Congressional District in 2018, Republican incumbent Bruce Poliquin lost because of rank choice voting, even though he received 2,200 votes MORE than his democrap challenger, Jared Golden.
To avoid RCV from kicking in, a candidate must receive 50% of the vote plus just one additional vote.
Bruce Poliquin is running again this November.
The Ranked Choice voter rules favor Rats and RINOS.
You mean Palin, Begich and the native american?
maybe just those 3, but maybe the whole slew....not sure how their primary(s) were structured.
Either way.....
Strong Democrat performance in Nebraska, Minnesota, upstate NY, and now Alaska.
No evidence of a red wave coming.
If people are only motivated to vote by the desire to kill babies, then this country will get everything it deserves.
What it tells us is that ranked choice voting is a farce
It doesn’t tell you Shiite.
Mary can go to Congress for two months and Gov. Sarah Palin will swamp her vote totals in November...
However. Too many of the Begich votes went to the Dim, or people didn’t vote for a 2nd person, so no 2nd choice to count.
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