Posted on 09/08/2022 6:18:25 PM PDT by familyop
Chinese president Xi Jinping has set a timeline for his nation's military to be capable of taking Taiwan by 2027 — just five years from now. Recent events in the Taiwan strait have some questioning the strategic situation and prospects of a near-term invasion.
Colin H. Kahl, the undersecretary of defense for policy, said that while China is very interested in expanding its sphere of political and military influence in the Indo-Pacific region, it's likely going to be more cautious when it comes to a move as aggressive as an invasion of Taiwan.
"I do not think that China wants to put themselves in a position that Russia finds itself in today, which is invading a democratic neighbor — one that I think would generate an enormous amount of global sympathy," Kahl said during a discussion Wednesday at the Defense News Conference 2022, adding China would risk broader military tensions at significant political and economic costs.
China might instead draw lessons from Russia's experience invading Ukraine over the last six months, Kahl said.
"I would hope that they would draw the lesson from Russia's experience that, 'Hey, maybe ... we shouldn't do that,'" he said. "I don't think that they've sped up their clock. ... It's no mystery that Xi Jinping has given his military until 2027 to develop the military capabilities to forcefully reunify with Taiwan — if he makes the decision to do that. But I've seen no indication that he's made that decision to do so."
Of greater concern is China's increased aggression in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and other areas in the region, and how that increased aggressive action might lead to unintended consequences that could result from misunderstandings.
"As China becomes increasingly assertive in kind of asserting its prerogatives around Taiwan, ... do they take the next step of trying to enforce those changes in the status quo in a way that runs the risk of an incident — an incident with the United States, and incident with one of our allies and partners?" Kahl asked. "We have seen the [People's Republic of China] engage in, over the last year or two, ... a trendline of increasingly unsafe and unprofessional encounters — both in ... the skies and at sea."
Now, Kahl said, the U.S. and its allies must watch out for aggressive actions by the navy and air force of the People's Liberation Army that could run the risk of causing an international incident. In the meantime, he said, the U.S. will continue to operate in the Indo-Pacific as it always has.
"We're not going to change our operating procedures," he said. “We're not going to do things that ratchet up tensions. We're going to do things that assert our continued support for the rules-based international order in the Indo-Pacific and our support for our allies and partners, and not be backed away."
After Russia invaded Ukraine in February, the Defense Department identified that nation as an "acute threat," which Kahl has further clarified as meaning "both immediate and sharp." But he's also now identified Russia as being "reckless" as well, considering the actions it's taken after failing to achieve the goals it set for its invasion of Ukraine.
"I think that Russia is ... a capable military power — perhaps not as capable, frankly, and conventional as some of us may have assessed six or eight months ago ...," he said. "But they've also demonstrated that they're an extraordinarily dangerous and reckless power. And there's a way in which ... a weakened Russia becomes more dangerous on the international stage."
In desperation, Kahl said, Russia has aligned itself more with and reached out to both North Korea and Iran for assistance. Moreso, he said, because Russia's conventional forces are so heavily occupied in Ukraine, he suspects they will be forced to rely more now on unconventional capabilities such as nuclear, cyber and space, as well as misinformation and disinformation campaigns.
"Russia does not pose the challenge to the United States and the rules-based international order over the long term that China does," he said. "But in the immediate term, it's a very dangerous actor."
I sincerely hope Taiwan has invested heavily in smart mines and already has them lying in wait to be activated when needed. If China blockaded Taiwan, it would be the most expensive blockade in history. A “few” scattered along the coast and in Chinese harbors would be advisable also.
Countries are required by law to notify the world when they’ve laid mines. But that was before they could be turned on and off. Bit of a wrinkle in the law there.
Consider the source.
Don’t try to steal the freedom from people who have enjoyed it for a long time. They will fight you.
Question: Would you drive a car made in China?
Answer: The Chinese don’t want to drive them either.
Only a fool would think China is going to invade the other Chinese. They will blockade Taiwan and starve Taipei out. The economy would crumble within days. A running of the blockade by the US will bring the same result a Soviet running of the Cuban Missile Crisis blockade would have brought.
They may, or they may not.
If they may, it will take them a few years.
Certainly no agency or political parties would ever overlook the may.
Eight months ago the Pentagon was downright derisive of any Russian military capability. They ran out of ammo, tanks, fuel, men on their way in before the Ukies ever fired a shot. They have been retreating ever since and now that the Kherson counter attack has been ongoing for a while the Russians are now on their last tank, can't fly aircraft and are collapsing backwards. Crimea will fall any day now.
Didn’t realize the war was a ‘failure’ for Russia.
This bullsh$t isn't remotely believable to anyone with any knowledge or with half a brain.
But, those of us that know the truth know this propaganda is a way to keep the money flowing to Ukraine and laundered to the right sources.
You are absolutely in bed with the both the Biden regime and George Soros when you post this nonsense.
Let's see where Russia was a month into their invasion:
How is the map looking almost six month later:
Who looks at all those retreats and thinks the Russians are winning?
How does watching these Ukrainians welcoming the troops of the counteroffensive near Kharkiv make you feel?
Do you think these people want to be in Russia?
The video is taken from Borivske Kharkiv region two days ago, start video 49.637717, 37.331663 end video 49.643657, 37.333516
Link to hi-res version
Well done, especially with the details. Thanks, Gunslingr3!
march 10th
September 10th
See how much territory Putin's army has lost and they are losing the south slowly
The CCP should invade Russia.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.