Posted on 09/30/2022 9:48:20 PM PDT by Zhang Fei
Ukraine ping
On the 3rd day of the Ukraine campaign, February 27, 2022, Kamil Galeev, a young Tatar scholar in exile from Russia, made a bold claim - that Russia would lose this war. While the war’s resolution remains unclear, this proposition was diametrically opposed to what the solons and the chatterati, the great and the good, were telling us - viz that Russia was bound to win it all in a matter of days. Just over 7 months later, it appears Galeev was closer to the truth than many of the experts whose job was to have a good grasp of such contingencies. This essay goes into a number of topics:
- The problem of limited resources, once the Russian state decided to downsize military spending drastically from perhaps 1/3 of the economy during the Soviet era to around 4%
- The failure of military reform, due to entrenched interests each looking to preserve its piece of a much smaller pie
- The difficulty reconciling Putin’s desire for a big army *and* a powerful navy with Russia’s much smaller military budget
- The evolution of the Ukrainian military from a non-functional organization into a real army, starting with the Russian invasion in 2014
- The reappearance of the kind of nationalism in Ukraine, after its 2014 military defeat in Crimea and a part of the Donbass, that is willing to bleed, and die, to defend the nation’s continued existence.
Thank you for your timely post.
And, if we and NATO keep pushing things in Ukraine, they will either take every inch of it or scorch earth what's left of it out of existence.
It's time you delusional freaks infected with Russian Derangement Syndrome let it go and Ukraine do what Donald Trump suggests -- negotiate and end to the war.
Americans have NO desire to see WWIII start over this or see billions more wasted on a war Ukraine can't win on its on. The madness must end.
“ All of approximately 5,500 of them will be killed or captured, if none of them escape. They’re trying to escape now.”
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Last I heard, Russian reinforcements were arriving it the Lyman area. Maybe the Russian forces there will “try to escape” at sone point. They’re not trying to do that now.
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, SEPTEMBER 30
Institute for the Study of War
Sep 30, 2022 - Press ISW
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-30
HEART OF UKRAINE: ALL IN SERVICE FOR THEIR HOMELAND
For September 30, Consolidated Squad of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine:
🔸️ An analysis of the rubble of a 3-storey building and the search for those killed as a result of an enemy air strike in the area of 1000 sq.m. was carried out. M, (110 tons of construction waste removed), was found and handed over to the investigative task force fragments of the male body.
🔸️The clearing of the area around the building from construction garbage and the consequences of the Russian army’s stay continues.
🔸️ carried out dismantling 18-you zalízobetttonih slabs overlap.
🔸️ Under the rubble found BC and transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
🔸️ The local population was provided assistance in the form of lumber in the amount of 6 cubes. m, for the betterment of life security.
🔸️Psychological support was provided to 45 residents of the de-occupied territory to improve their emotional state.
🔸️Zdíjsneno water supply units of zsu for technical needs, in a number of 7.5 t.
🔸️ The dismantling of 8 trees that were threatened to fall on the residential buildings of the local population.
We continue to work and help for VICTORY!
You claim to be neutral and that you hate war. Reality is, you are a mad Russski irredentist, wherever you might currently be parking your azz. An internet polluting, pernicious, puking, Putinista, pom-pom girl.
Ukrainian Boy thought he was practicing first aid on his friend - and got the best surprise: dad came back from the war.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/HFoKtVFKWlw
Kamil is always very good. A young fellow, who is ethnically Tatar.... Thanks for posting from that thread spinner app for Twitter. So easy to read this way.
They can only hold to the four ‘states’ if Lyman, Ukraine (the logistics hub for the railway system) is under their control. If they lose the hub, the ‘game’ goes downhill in 30 days, with some massive retreat.
Whatever Russian reserves are being deployed over the next week....it’s all going to be bundled to save Lyman.
This whole front is tied to the age-old logistics scheme where railways bring the massive bulk of your needs to the front, and trucks disperse to the final hundred miles. Ukraine figured that out, and it’s been their game for the past month.
Let’s not forget the corruption, the concrete reactive armor is significant. Maybe the Western Anti-Tank Weapons are working far better than they should.
“There was another issue. Shoygu is ethnic Tuvan”
Half Tuvan, though he grew up in Tuvan land. His mother is Ukrainian.
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