The circumstances were:
Military train heading from Russia to Crimea. Legit target.
Middle of the night, minimal traffic.
Couple of military vehicles. Legit target.
Bridge completely under Russian control from both sides.
Bridge under 24/7 surveillance.
If it was misadventure or freak accident, the timing couldn’t have been more convenient. If it was not an accident, then who did it and why?
Ukrainian motive: imminent suspicion that something very big is going to happen in Kherson - Stremousov (allegedly) said that over the half term period ALL schoolchildren in occupied Kherson will be sent to Crimea- with or without their parent’s consent. What kind of Big Thing could happen in Kherson that only kids should be evacuated? Why not their parents? Are there no pro-Russian adults there, only pro-Russian kids?
None of that makes sense unless you consider the possibility that Russia is planning to Groznify Kherson or Zaporizhzha oblast. Get the kids into the adoption system via Crimea, then flatten what’s left.
As for Russia: this doesn’t make sense as a Ukrainian attack (unless they had massive support from inside the Russian camp), and “preventing a mass retreat PR disaster” is a bit of a crazy theory - but, how about this?
One thing unites both the Putin faction and its critics - they do not want to admit that there is widespread oppposition to the war inside Russia. There are partisans inside Russia actively sabotaging the war effort, and they probably have contacts inside the Russian forces in Crimea. Russia’s made a good fist at suppressing reports of their activity, but it’s going to be very difficult to pretend that the Kursk Bridge hasn’t just given Putin an amphibious off-ramp as a birthday present.
Very good assessment. It was a box truck headed west to Crimea from the mainland. So more than likely a munitions transport. Accident? Self sabotage? or a well timed external hit?
A Uke sabotage operation makes sense. A sabotage operation in cahoots with disaffected Russians makes even more sense. A bomb in an ammo truck would be easy with “institutional assistance”.
Why would they do it?
It slows down logistical support for Russia in Ukraine AND for the Russian Navy.
It also sends a huge message to the world the Russia is losing.
All wars are won with logistics. This is a big blow to Russian logistics.