developments within the Russian Federation are eerily similar to those 31 years ago, and again raise the specter of collapse. The West is once again afraid of what might follow a Russian dissolution (remember the country is composed of 83 administrative areas, including 21 republics), and is deeply anxious about the ability of new(ish) nations to make sovereign decisions. Both attitudes are deeply flawed, whatever the leaders of Germany and France may think.
Of Russia’s 85 political divisions, Tatarstan and Bashkortostan are two of the few that have a unique constitutional arrangement granting them considerable autonomy. Together, they have a population of almost eight million that has increased about 0.4 percent over the last decade.
The republics are home to Russia’s legacy crude oil production producing about 1 million barrels per day, or about 10 percent of Russia’s total. Tatarstan alone has approximately 7.3 billion barrels in reserves, or 30 years of supply at current production rates.
In addition to hydrocarbon production, the two regions are, in comparison to the rest of Russia, diversified economically, having strong manufacturing and agricultural sectors. The regions have access to several river systems as well as railways putting them at the crossroads of trade routes. Together they have a high net export trade balance with exports of $15bn [€14.2bn] and imports of $1.6bn
During the 1990s after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Tatarstan took steps through referendums and agreements with the Kremlin to achieve full sovereignty.
When Russia acknowledged the sovereignty of Abkhazia and South Ossetia after Russia’s August 2008 invasion of Georgia, Tatarstan declared itself independent and asked the United Nations and Russia for recognition.
Both ignored the request.