Posted on 11/06/2022 2:52:18 AM PST by FarCenter
WASHINGTON -- U.S. President Joe Biden appears ready to pressure Japan and the Netherlands even more to join efforts to block the flow of advanced chip technology to China, where it could be used to develop cutting-edge weapons.
"I think you will see Japan and Netherlands follow our lead," U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said on CNBC Thursday. While no specifics were mentioned, this appears to be the first time that a high-ranking U.S. official has named specific countries when speaking about cooperation on the export curbs.
Since October, the Biden administration has, in effect, banned trade with China in advanced semiconductor technology, manufacturing equipment and related human resources. The rules include measures that would prohibit foreign companies from exporting semiconductors that incorporate U.S. technology.
U.S. companies are strong in software used in chips as well as in the design software employed to make advanced semiconductors. South Korean and Taiwanese companies handle many products that use such U.S. technology, which is already subject to certain regulations.
Japan and the Netherlands are the subject of U.S. attention because of their strength in semiconductor manufacturing equipment, which so far has not been subject to U.S. regulations. Companies in both countries are believed to be able build products that do not relying on U.S. technology.
Three companies dominate the global market for chipmaking equipment -- American company Applied Materials is the largest, followed by ASML of the Netherlands and Japan's Tokyo Electron.
Tokyo Electron has a 90% share of the global market for equipment that forms circuits by applying specialized chemicals on semiconductor wafers and has a nearly 40% share of equipment that creates thin films on wafer surfaces. Of the approximately 2 trillion yen ($13.6 billion) in consolidated sales for the fiscal year ended March 2022, a quarter of that was to China, making it the largest customer, ahead of South Korea and Taiwan.
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Restricting exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China would have a significant impact on the Japanese economy. Exports of chipmaking equipment totaled around 3 trillion yen from January to September, up nearly 30% from the same period last year. The market has expanded rapidly, tripling in size over the past 10 years.
It now surpasses auto parts, which is about 2.8 trillion yen, and grew to become the second-largest export sector after steel, which is about 3.5 trillion yen. Chipmaking equipment now accounts for more than 4% of total exports. Of this, about 970 billion yen is to China, growing more than 600% over a decade.
That's nonsense. The most lethal weapons are using and going to use run-of-the-mill ARM processors that China has made for over a decade. The entire strategy of loitering munitions is to make them cheap and plentiful so they can't all be shot down. Right now the Ukrainians are using spray and pray small arms fire and expensive SAMs against Iranian drones. That won't work as China makes cheaper components in giant quantities. The Russians have solutions for Ukrainian drones like GPS jamming. The Ukrainians ought to have that, but I'm not sure if they do or are using it.
Bottom line a cheap drone will easily hit a stationary target using GPS guidance. Nothing advanced about it. Hitting non-stationary targets may require more advanced technologies such as target recognition but that's getting cheaper and easier all the time.
The ultimate cost of offshoring
IEEE tried to warn of this outcome in the eighties
$B7.5 Billion in sales to China
Taiwan is $B4.7
For Comparison: to USA companies $2B
Applied Materials produces the equipment and software that is used to manufacture semiconductor chips.
I think that the advanced chips would be used in the design and production of the cutting-edge weapons, as well as in battle management systems. They probably won’t be used in the actual weapons themselves.
I doubt that sub-14 nm semiconductors will meet MIL specs for reliability, environmental tolerance and radiation hardness.
US hello? Tissues, Aisle 5. Get some. Thanks.
ping
How many millions has Brandon gotten from China?
And now he’s playing theater on us with this stance...
Sure...
Very interesting.
Biden appears ready to pressure Japan and the Netherlands even more to join efforts to block the flow of advanced chip technology to China, where it could be used to develop cutting-edge weapons.
IMO most of this is eyewash, that barndoor has been open for so long that attempting to close it is of little help. Also looking at the numbers and local economic conditions it is unlikely Japan and the NL will want to slit their wrist for biden.
I think building cheap drones for swarming is different from designing and machining submarine propellers. A drone just needs a reasonable chance of making it to the target. A drone can be far from perfect.
When you mention battle management that suggests a coordinated drone swarm with commjunication links that can be jammed. While counterjamming and communication design can be very sophisticated, I don't think it's necessary for fixed targets.
Hope they tell Joe what he can do with his “pressure”.
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