“They apparently have a withhold for a notional NATO attack, which we would regard as absurd, but they regard it as a real possibility,”
Absurd? NATO is spending half a billion every day attacking Russia. We all know all of those defensive armored divisions could be made offensive weapons by telling the tank drivers where forward gear in the shifting pattern is.
I have kept track of Russia’s activities for many years.
First of all, it is past time that people stop believing propaganda. It is extremely dangerous to let this go on. In the days pre 1945 and nuclear weapons, it somewhat didn’t matter. But it does now.
Russia’s oil defines their superiority. Their oil is diesel rich. It is not diesel light as shale liquids are. This oil flow has created a particular situation that people are going to have to accept:
They are producing missiles at a rate that exceeds consumption. Even in Ukraine. There has been zero news of weapons being diverted from their considerable presence in Syria — and this is because they have no need to. You can search the web for news of Russian weaponry in the 2018 or 2019 or whatever timeframe. You’ll find news of enormous output. Don’t measure it in dollars or rubles. Measure it in missile count.
They have their own central bank. Just like the Federal Reserve. They aren’t going to run out of money. It has been absurd from day one to imagine sanctions could crush the Russian economy. Sanctions haven’t particularly bothered Iran for over a decade. Nor North Korea. Why didn’t they surrender because of sanctions?
Because they can create money from nothing, just like the Fed. NKorea buys things from China with coal. NKorea has lots of coal. Iran of course ships oil north across the Caspian, where it is mixed with Russian flow and sold.
This is real value stuff. Not bytes of movies that is our export. We import about 8 million barrels of oil every single day. How can this be good?
So, yes, Russia must be completely destroyed and its oil fields seized. This must happen or they will achieve world domination.
The bad news is they have nukes and can never happen. And so, they will win. There is nothing we can do about it.